中国同志们

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another505
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Sat 29 Jul 2017 10:31

Sorry guys

No time for it! I would go there if i was travelling alone

Also 1000 post!!! Quite a feat for an offtopic foreign language thread
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Sat 29 Jul 2017 10:33

keldon wrote:
another505 wrote:
rex88 wrote:Yeah, what Keldon said, new one in Beijing as well as the Minsk. August first is the big day, nobody knows if there will be another parade.


Better see some new wares if there is one, at least su-35s and the new light tank.


Don't forget to make some pics, i have high expectations from you. ^^

btw. expectations...

taken from fyjs, a short overview of wannabee prophets. Did a quick search on google, but only found recent ones, the older ones must be in archive or something

Spoiler : :
1990. The Economist China's economy will be stagnant.
1990. The Economist China's economy will come to a halt.
1996. The Economist China's economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist China's economy is entering a stagflation period
1999. Bank of Canada: The Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy
1999. Bank of Canada : China's economy may be hard landing.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China's currency policyhits the hard landing risk
2001. Wilbanks Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2001. WST Asset Management: China is Hardlanding
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2002. The New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2003. The New York Times: The Bank Crisis puts China into danger
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2004. "The Economist: China falls
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The risk of a Hard Landing in China
2005. Nouriel Roubini: China's hard landing hazard
2006. International Economy: Can China achieve a soft landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's economy overheating? Can China's economy overheat?Can China take a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2008. Forbes: China's hard landing?
2009. Fortune: China & s hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
Fortune Magazine: China's hard landing.China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2010 Nouriel Roubini: Hardlanding is near China
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2011: Business Neids: China's hard landing may be closer than you think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News From China: A Hard Landing
2012: US interest: China's bad economic news: a hard landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2013: zero hedge: China's a hard landing
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2014. CNBC: China's hard landing
2015. Forbes: Congratulations You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, you have come to a Chinese hard landing
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2016. " Economist ": hard landing in China looming
2017. National interest: China's economy will collapse?


I guess they never thought chinese could also predict and prevent :roll:
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Sat 29 Jul 2017 10:55

keldon wrote:
rex88 wrote:
Hopefully our dear friend finds time for the new museum in Beijing; this is said to be one of the exhibits:
http://mil.huanqiu.com/photo_china/2017 ... 1.html#p=5



rumors exploded from this model. Like, is the J-20 gonna get navalized and such, it also putting on fuel for the flame war between SAC and CAC supporters. It also seems that most of the non-land vehicles are just 1:1 scale models.

Make sense for j20 to be navalized. It has entered service already and there seem to be no new project of planes immediately
Also j20 nice range will work well with it


Im definitely more cac person
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sat 29 Jul 2017 14:21

another505 wrote:Make sense for j20 to be navalized. It has entered service already and there seem to be no new project of planes immediately
Also j20 nice range will work well with it


Im definitely more cac person


A shame you couldn't go. :(

btw. careful to mention your CAC allegiance in chinese forum, the flame war over there makes the eugen offtopic section like a kindergarten. :D
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sat 29 Jul 2017 20:14

This will be a long post.

First a really recent article about the wishful thinking of imminent economic collapse

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 774e1548df

and when we mention collapse, you can't ignore the father of collapse: Gordon Chang. A very nice post on sinodefence about the whole phenomenon.

Spoiler : :
Gordon Chang is merely the symptom of the problem. He is getting a audience because he is saying what people wants to hear.

The deeper problem with (western) media coverage and political analysis in general is that its too much driven by ideology, narrative and in the case of foreign reporting even nationalism. This problem goes beyond just the China coverage. When you have a ideologically driven worldview you tend to see things in terms of the good guys vs. the bad guys and black vs. white. But the world is not black and white its grey. But if you insist on seeing the world in black and white terms then you will get a very one sided, skewed and inaccurate view of the world. A lot of what we see and hear in the media is being distorted by a ideological filter.

At least with China so far this has only led to mudslinging and some slander. But in the Middle East and Russia this has helped to lead to war and conflict.

There is a additional danger to this. With a black and white view of the world you tend to overestimate the weakness and underestimate the strength of your opponents. But even worse is that you tend to overlook your own weaknesses. That latter is a far bigger sin and danger than the former. Because you look at yourself through a white filter and you look at the other through a black filter.

I would say this is not just purely a American or Western problem. But I would say this is a "human problem" because everyone is doing it.


While we are at it, prof. Jin Canrong did a talk/lecture about world development tendencies, i highly recommend it.



btw. Ernest, this is the exhibit in Beijing, opened 2 days ago.



Also, a documentary about VT-4, many interior footages. Due to the nature of the tank, you should expect some exaggerations



Oh, and remember when i asked you about 圣母病, Ernest? They made a song about it. :mrgreen:

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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sat 29 Jul 2017 21:42



Do it with google translate, if you are interested. I won't bother with such a large text.

From what i get by fly over it, it's buisness stories of a real estate company.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sun 30 Jul 2017 13:42

90th anniversary parade in Zhurihe exercise ground. Full video.

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Re: 中国同志们

Postby Frencho » Sun 30 Jul 2017 20:37

keldon wrote:


Do it with google translate, if you are interested. I won't bother with such a large text.

From what i get by fly over it, it's buisness stories of a real estate company.


Where do you live in China that you’ve never been to a Wanda Cinema or walked into Sunac properties?

And that article I linked is not “Ideologue” Western media, it Chinese and sourced from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)!

Both those CEOs put their companies at over 200% debt ratio, are under investigation and they might be prosecuted and face jail time in PRC not USA…

This is as bad as Cineplex or NAI Global in North America edging bankruptcy and closing some divisions. So, both Wanda and Sunac are not in a good financial position also both companies have real estate and entertainment companies/studios, a lot of it…

Moreover, Wanda had to sell Lionsgate Films this week!
Cmon, you have to translate we suffered through the Great Wall and the Transformers movies!

Yet the Forbes article you linked dismisses the housing bubble and the shadow lending as water under the bridge and it's all rosy Lilly white.

And goes basically like this: FUCK YOU SOROS & BARCLAYS RENMIBI IS NOT 7 TO 1 BUT 6.74 TO 1!!! HA!!!! SUCK IT!!!!!!!!
That’s just lame.

Especially knowing Chinese are notorious for cooking and trafficking their economic numbers, markers and indicators.

Also, China has announced 3 trillion in FX reserves and a huge balance sheet on the central bank, if Soros's 4 billion total wealth can move the Renmibi we need to have words…

Labelling fact based western remarks on the Chinese economy as ideological drivel is pathetic.
China's economy is not collapsing, but it has SERIOUS issues and they need to stop pretending they can keep growing at double digits. China’s rise was meteoric, impressive but it can’t last forever.

Last but not least, I’d still rate Japan as the world’s second largest economy. At least we can trust the numbers they disclose.

This is coming from a Westerner, one of those pesky "Ideologues" whose very own Media and civil society keeps bashing their own country's finances, criticizing their own national economies and their own "Elites" thrice as much as they do China or Russia.

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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sun 30 Jul 2017 22:15

Frencho wrote:And that article I linked is not “Ideologue” Western media, it Chinese and sourced from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)!

[...]

This is coming from a Westerner, one of those pesky "Ideologues" whose very own Media and civil society keeps bashing their own country's finances, criticizing their own national economies and their own "Elites" thrice as much as they do China or Russia.


By what you have written yourself just above, China is aware of those failures.

If you think Chinese are in any way less critical compared to "free thinking ideologues" on this side, then you really need to frequent the Chinese news outlet more. But you'll have to do it with google translate or learn Chinese yourself, because the volume of those text will be far too large than what i'm willing to do in my spare time.

btw. i don't think a pure "fact based" media is a thing, "agenda driven" is what i would conclude after 20+ years (and counting) in Germany. As to the issues with "agenda driven" media there is also a fairly good post from sinodefence:

Spoiler : :
Gordon Chang talks a lot of game and 'appears' to be someone of high caliber spewing out educated and sound theories. This is why he has a lot of followers including people from academia.

The problem with Gordon is not because he is wrong, the problem with Gordon is he is only spewing out just one sided stories. Anyone can make any country into a doom and gloom scenario if you are only showing that side.

If all I talk about is the stats on say 2 city blocks of the most dangerous streets in city A, you would think the entire city A is the most dangerous place on Earth.
That doesn't make me a liar but it does make me intellectually dishonest.

You can speak the truth and even present real facts but still be dishonest. This is what many politicians do too. It's an art form. Some folks got it down to a science!

No too different than Satan in the garden of eden. Technically he spoke the truth. He never lied to Adam or Eve. He just told them a one sided story.


I know from your Posts, that you are a person with strong opinion, and your conviction about what you perceive as right or just is firm. The posts i made about the past 20 years of doom saying about the economic malais is NOT to invalidate every articles out there that express concerns about the chinese economy, it's has rather more to do with what is written in that post above in spoiler tag. It is something that skews the reporting quite a bit and thus incapable to present a good prediction.

So if your problem is that you think someone is towing the party line or is in need of some enlightment, then you could have just said so. No need to play smug and "wanting a translation", I would have gave you what you are now reading.

btw. i'm still waiting for you to answer why you have been increasing the frontal facing arc from 30° to 60° as the discussion went on to suit your narative. ;)

EDIT:

Frencho wrote:China's economy is not collapsing, but it has SERIOUS issues and they need to stop pretending they can keep growing at double digits. China’s rise was meteoric, impressive but it can’t last forever.


Forgot about this one. No one is expecting China to infinitely growing at double digits, not the think tank in China nor my German professor in early 2000. The question was always "how long will the rapid growth stop and the next phase of economic transformation start?"

Does China have issues? Of course, why would you think anybody would deny it? But the doom prophecies like what Gordon Chang is making are similar to when i say: "heed my words, you will die!"

And you know my prediction is absolutely true. :)
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