Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby ikalugin » Sat 5 Dec 2015 00:58

The whole "moderate" opposition ship has sailed a while ago. And because of the conflict of interests you either get a (total) "winner" in that (total) war or you get a solution that noone likes but accepts because of everyone one being tired of the war or you get the place partitioned.

In my opinion the "moderates" never had a chance of building a secular state from the get go, if only due to the "moderate" islamists being around that "moderate" opposition. So the best case scenario with the "moderate" opposition would be the Erdogan's dream - islamist, authoritarian state.
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby frostypooky » Sat 5 Dec 2015 03:24

yeah, and the whole "people reuniting under 'moderate competent secular' regime" ship has sailed almost 4 years ago.

regardless, its clear there is no peaceful future for Syria outside of either balkanization or a completely different set of leadership. it is a delusion on the part of Iran to believe they can retain influence through select groups, but at least Russian leadership is accepting the fact that Assad & friends should at least be formally ousted through a UN-monitored election. perhaps there is a chance to salvage relations afterwards to retain Tartus.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Graphic » Sat 5 Dec 2015 07:16

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comme ... allen-flat

ISIL fighters have openly admitted that they no longer seek shelter when Russian planes raid Raqqa as the airstrikes are so inaccurate.
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Guggy » Sat 5 Dec 2015 07:24

Russia’s Caspian-launched cruise missiles have also seen numerous misfires, with several missiles crashing in Iran


Wasnt this debunked though?

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby rex88 » Sat 5 Dec 2015 08:54

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Yakhont » Sat 5 Dec 2015 10:01

Bullfrog wrote:Yes it is a hypothetical scenario, so? The point is that it isn't a guarantee that the regime change would honor deals Russia made with Assad regardless to which political movement or faction took over and they have no reason to do so. It's silly to suggest Russia doesn't care who's in charge when having the Ba'ath party in charge does guarantee that Russian interest/assets/w.e are safe.

It would boggle my mind if Russia wasn't there to support it's interest in the Syria. The entire "We don't care who's in charge" slogan is just another PR adventure.


Of course you can reduce everything to "every country is in it for their own interests". If Assad leaving is in Russia's interest of course they would say he go. What exactly is the point of this thought exercise? How can you say what Russia says in negotiations as PR? Thats the opposite meaning of PR.


Graphic wrote:http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/neil-hauer-russias-attempts-to-intervene-in-the-syrian-war-have-fallen-flat

ISIL fighters have openly admitted that they no longer seek shelter when Russian planes raid Raqqa as the airstrikes are so inaccurate.


Raqqa is bombed by Russian, US, French and now British aircrafts. How can they tell which is what and when to seek shelter?


delfo wrote:Here is a break up of the now lost possibility of de-escalation that went out the window the moment Russia started bombing:

There is no evidence the strength of the SAA + NDF is anywhere close to 250 000 troops at the front. Actually the SAA + NDF combat troops are less than 70000. And their quality is beyond abysmal for the most part. And unless you are looking at the whole deal as Russia replacing and continuing the fight alone even that number for a Russian effort is inflated. Feel free to correct me but bear in mind Hezbollah, Shia militias and IRGC and IRGC forced conscripts from northern Iran are not locals.


Right Im going with official estimates from US officials. Your personel judgements or estimates are not very accurate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/29/world ... rrer=&_r=0

You expect the foreign fighter to queitly lay down their arms and go home? They are there for a reason and it is not for the opposition to step in.

What you want is against Russia's interests and completely unfeasible.

Where in reality what you need is de-escalation forces composed of neutral troops of less than 40000 to hold the middle ground between loyalist and opposition groups and then 30000 to go after Nusra and Ahrar al Sham in cooperation with the groups who have had clashes with them ( to be read as all the other groups in the region ). Also an understanding that those groups have a smaller zealot core than you think and have a large following of mercs because they pay triple and some of their units will disband.

So we're down to 70000 troops plus rotation and FSA Southern front & + Kurds & FSA YPD + Druze NDF who are neutral for the most part even though technically under regime command to clean up the ISIS territory. ( The groups listed would have a strength of around 180 000 and have a proven record against ISIS unlike the SAA).


70 000 in a country of 20 million. GW Bush called from 2003 and they want their plan back.

Here are the UN statistics on current contributions. Real world ones.
http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resou ... tors.shtml

Here are potential countries which can off the top of my head contribute:

Jordan - 15000
Egypt - 15000
Tunis - let's say 5000 tentatively
Morocco - 5000
Pakistan - 5000
Bangladesh - 5000
Russia - 10000 ( already committed more to Syria if you count all the Armed forces branches working on the Civil War)
US - 10000 ( Same as above )


No one is even talking about a UN mission! Here are the stats you pulled out: Jordan(1635), Jordan(2073), Tunis(199), Morocco(2317),
Pakistan(7675), Bangladesh(8420), Russia(81), US(79).

If Egypt is not willing to move into Liya next door, what makes you think they woulld want to operate in an area they have never done so for very little gain?

@Yakhont

I was pretty clear on the infrastructure bit and what was being protected. I don't intend to repeat myself.


This is totally untrure; there was no such agreement formal or informal. Wars happen and things get destroyed intentionally and unintentionally.

I don't understand what sort of expeditionary force capability you're talking about concerning Egypt when they can drive supplies and come back in the same day. The distance between Cairo and the border with Sudan is similar to the distance between Cairo and Damascus.


They do not share a border. Egypt in active in Sudan because they have a vital security interest there for thosands of years(upstream of Nile) completely unlike in Syria.

The reason why transport between Suadn and Egypt is easy is due to movement along the river incidently this is how IS mangaed to advance so fast along the Euphrates river into Iraq.

Bombing is inexpensive when you're dropping cluster bombs, phosphorous munitions and retarded bombs from soviet depots that were bought and paid for 40 years ago. Same goes for guided munitions of a similar age.


Those things have a shelf life which rapidly degrade if not properly kept. Im not aware of any phosphorous bombs in inventory.

None of what I said about the economy happed during the civil war. Pre civil war the GDP of Syria was 50-60 billion USD in 2011. That is for a country of 24 million and an army with 2500 tanks. I can only say that when I mention pre civil war and worst performing for the last 25 years and you say :

This sort of thing tend to happen during major civil war. Syria still has a government with foreign support an domestic base, morethan can be said for the FSA.


You are willfully ignoring my point. The Syrian state was bankrupt, unstable and next to non existent in 2009-2010 based on the lack of an economy. Everything else was just an afterthought.


Yes i misread your statement. But your statements are completely misleading. Pre upising GDP growth was averaging 5%. There was rising inequality which lead to increased tentions, one of the reasons for the uprising, but to say the state was almost non-existent with no economy is completely untrue.

Lebanon is important as it is closely tied to Syria economically. So it is no suprise that many people got rich due to ties to it.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/file ... Butter.pdf
The overall performance of the economy in the pre-uprising period was relatively strong, with real
annual GDP growth averaging about 5 per cent. Unemployment (by official data) averaged just over
8 per cent. (An exception was in 2008, when the unemployment rate exceeded 10 per cent, mainly as
a result of drought; the same year also saw a spike in inflation, reflecting the sharp rise in world food
and fuel prices.) The years prior to 2011 also saw an increase in the level of economic hardship for
many segments of Syrian society, in particular in rural areas of the north and east. These trends have
been analysed in depth by the SCPR.8
Rural deprivation, exacerbated by the severe drought in 2008
and poor rainfall in the following two years, resulted in a swelling of the population of haphazardly
developed areas around the main cities. Such increased poverty and inequality alongside the rise of a
new wealthy business elite made for a potentially combustible mix.


Your exertions are completely untrue and not backed by any sources. I dont understand how you can make such bold claims unsupported.
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby frostypooky » Sat 5 Dec 2015 12:55

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too true

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 5 Dec 2015 13:16

@Yakhont

If you're going to argue like that I will leave you to the MoD briefings.

Next time address paper, actual and combat strength. If you believe 250 thousand SAA and NDF are frontline troop strengths then the SAA is even more shit then previously advertised. I have listed the order of battle of the SAA several times here. Check there what part of the 250000 are rear troops, HQ and Airforce. The NY times source offers nothing of value when gauging combat strength.
Next time don't false equivalency Iraq where there were little US supporting factions and no competent ground forces left. Let me one up you. The USSR sent 150000 to Afghanistan and had the support of 250000 local troops and lost. Why do you expect a different outcome ? Don't answer that, that's a false equivalency, same way I won't answer yours.
Next time deal with the reality that 2/3rds of the foreign warriors still breathing are under Iranian command. SOHR is a good start.
Next time check the population stats of Syria that are not maimed, in a camp or in another country. SOHR is a good start.
Next time when you want to disregard Russian deployment commitments in Syria but you want to quote UN commitments don't do it to me. 2 bases at Homs + Latakia = 3000x2 then 10 supply and landing ships, 2 cruisers, 1 SIGNIT ship, 1 sub, 3 destroyers 1 naval infantry brigade, 1 recon battalion, 1 arty regiment.
Next time check why Egypt didn't move next door. Or if it really didn't move next door. The river Nile to the Euphrates analogy is bogus. Don't use it you will get even worse a reception. I dare say you will be mocked to no end.
Next time read the chapman house report in full when you quote when you talk of informal agreements to safeguard power generation.
Next time talk about the shelf life of munitions to someone who will buy it. If a few don't go off no one cares at the MoD. I have seen the results of using rocket artillery munitions double my age on the people who loaded and handled it, didn't make the officers flinch. Rocket fuel tends to make for one fun chemistry class.
And finally next time learn what strong GDP performance is. When the performance growth of around 5% for an underdeveloped country that is slow. 5% growth compared to itself isn't 5% more growth than the people next door. If they average 10 and you average 5 they still beat you.
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=c ... gdp%202007

Place mena countries in the search and compare. Check how Syria looks like. For more in depth look, check this:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication ... a-analysis

If you want to argue this way go some place people will buy it. Some place where people don't have a formal education in economics and don't know that growth below 5% for a developing tier country coupled with high inflation is akin to stagflation. You have followed the intentionally disruptive approach I have seen far too often focusing on technicalities that you are not even correct about for this to be productive.

Oh and next time you want to take my words out of context meet the quote function:

e. Syria was the worst performing Arab country in the world second only to Yemen the last 25 years. And Yemen wasn't even a country during parts of that. Iraq was worse than Syria for 1 year. And then economically it shot back up. This is about the stable government. You can't talk stable government when Syria was consistently under performing economically. Countries with no oil or under Syrian occupation in the region ( Lebanon ) were taking it to the cleaners economically. That is what the stable government of Damascus could do in the last 25 years.


This is what I said that started the Syrian economic performance argument and you quoted the source that says it had a relatively stable growth of 5% over a period but also high inflation and that the growth had slowed down to 3%. Which again isn't developing country material.

Feel free to not misquote me next time in order to derail the argument. I already have to deal with one guy in this thread who does that, claims not to know any Russian and then posts sources from Gazeta in Russian.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby GBNATO » Sat 5 Dec 2015 14:01

Good to see Typhoons flying bombing missions alongside Tornadoes and Reapers. I am getting sick of all the ignorant twats on my facebook sharing vids of Assad's barrel bombing or Russia's quasi carpet bombing and saying "look at the sanctioned MASS MURDER our government has unleashed on they Syrian people!!1!!1"
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby ikalugin » Sat 5 Dec 2015 14:05

Graphic wrote:http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/neil-hauer-russias-attempts-to-intervene-in-the-syrian-war-have-fallen-flat

ISIL fighters have openly admitted that they no longer seek shelter when Russian planes raid Raqqa as the airstrikes are so inaccurate.

The article is as inacurate as the accuracy of the bombs it states. I could break it down, but should I bother with such a well spinned piece?
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