Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

[Bullfrog]

[Double]

Lol, delfo is the only one that makes any sense around here anymore. The rest of it is endless variations on Russia best.

Yeah, what a peasants. Everybody knows, that murika is da best, right?

[Guggy]

[Graphic]

I am done with your disruption of the thread.

Literally all i've seen in this thread for the past week has been you posting absurd comments and ideas of the whole crisis situation

Your capacity to defend Russia and everything it does is exceeded only by your capacity to hate Russia and everything it stands for when GRET SUOMI is involved. It's always entertaining to see your pre-packaged, generic Chomskyist new left anti-imperialist worldview clash with your nationalism.

[Guggy]

Idk I think Sleksa is cool too

[rex88]

Bring it back guys These are basically the questions at stake. If we debated them separately perhaps people would be less feisty.

1. The Social Question: What is the best possible outcome for Syria in the next 10 years? What is the most possible outcome? Even if it is bad, is it worth changing? What is the worst scenario for Syria and how do you propose to prevent this?

2. The Political Question: How committed are the regional players in terms of intervention? How feasible are their respective visions for the region?

3. The History Question: What is the origin of the problem in Syria, does the problem still exist today, and do they pose a glass ceiling for how good things can get?

4. The Cultural Question: How much does the Middle East situation connect the domestic affairs of the West? Is making 'their' culture feel respected a possible or desirable part of the solution?

[delfo]

Bring it back guys These are basically the questions at stake. If we debated them separately perhaps people would be less feisty.

1. The Social Question: What is the best possible outcome for Syria in the next 10 years? What is the most possible outcome? Even if it is bad, is it worth changing? What is the worst scenario for Syria and how do you propose to prevent this?

2. The Political Question: How committed are the regional players in terms of intervention? How feasible are their respective visions for the region?

3. The History Question: What is the origin of the problem in Syria, does the problem still exist today, and do they pose a glass ceiling for how good things can get?

4. The Cultural Question: How much does the Middle East situation connect the domestic affairs of the West? Is making 'their' culture feel respected a possible or desirable part of the solution?

On question 1:

Removal of Iran, Hezbollah, Shia militias and Foreign Salafists and Jihadists. Withdraw of Turkish clandestine operatives, the lot of them, you can notice them on the videos from Latakia by the accent. Turkmens from the region don't come with Istanbul accents. Wavering of the Syrian debt to Iran, wavering Gulf States incurred favors by the opposition, wavering Syrian debt to Russia. Investment overseen by a third party to the sum of 200 billion USD over the next decade. Institutionalizing a peace maintaining force ( the peace maintaining mandate by the UN)to separate the points of contention along the Israeli border, the Southern Lebanese border and maintaining a separation between Assad loyalists, opposition and the Afrin Kurdish Kanton. Organization of remaining neutral tier forces with foreign support into a peace enforcing UN mandate against ISIS. Gradual disarmament of all combatants and reforming Syria into a federation of 8 parts. Alawite north coastal areas, Sunni northern areas from Homs to the Turkish border, Afrin Canton autonomous region, Damascus metro area, Southern Sunni regions, Druze southern autonomous areas, Central Syrian Territories ( ISIS occupation areas + DEZ and Tadmur), Rojave&Cizre Canton Kurdish regional authority. Bringing the total combat personal int he country to a sustainable financially level of 80000 peace time strength post disarmament.

On question 2:

Very committed when it comes to motivation but with different level of involvement. The gulf states rhetorically are heavily invested as Iran but realistically their committement in arms and subsidies is limited to a fraction of Iran. Turkey is heavily invested into denying a Kurdish state willing to close it's eyes to almost any stunt ISIS pulls. Israel is heavily invested into bombing any IRGC or Hezbollah troops it can find. Russia and the US can talk they control the narrative but they can't put the brakes on either IRAN or Turkey, let alone the war. The KRG is using this as an excuse to grab more areas under it's de facto control in Iraq and break away from Baghdad securing for the first time the ability to directly sell oil and gas to Turkey for money and not through Baghdad and then to receive only part of the cut. This forces it's hand to act against the other Kurdish factions for the sake of maintaining an economic strategic alliance with Turkey.

Quetion 3:

Poor governance led on by a crony regime that proved to in the end be unable to withstand external economic shocks successfully. 2007-9 economic shocks coupled with droughts and inflated by someone ordering to use machine guns on non violent crowds. The videos of that have been published here previously. They are not that easy to watch. Assad's practices are persisting though the terror tactics and the torture and execution of prisoners doesn't seem to have broken his opposition's morale. Or their will to defy him. Or the attempts on high ranking officials near his compound in Damascus. With a different governing body that will at least not be there from the start. We know the Kurds at least don't kill or torture prisoners. They imprison them without a formal process and questions have been raised towards that but at least they don't murder and torture outright. Other factions also have stayed their hands when it comes to POWs. It will be an improvement over shooting non violent protesters indiscriminately.

Question 4:

The Syrian civil war when it comes the factions other than ISIS is largely a domestic issue for Syria. The way of life is usually unchanged bar the hardcore jihadists in JAF. ISIS and JAF jihadists are the main attractors of foreign jihadists and covet foreign media attention and aim at western targets. The rest are enclosed within the local issues and the geopolitical situation of the middle east. Since those 2 groups are groups no one wants to see there after a disarmament the question of way of life and western impact and things like moves away from civil courts or civil administration are not on the table. In local elections for city councils in FSA controlled Northern and Southern area we have seen women voting and taking part as candidates. That should be an indication. At the core of it is a local war with local issues that are achievable. ISIS has non local goals and non local issues but they are on the naughty list and will not be taken into account. They should gradually be removed and that is happening. North Eastern Syria is an indication of that.

[rex88]

u just got schooled bro

best poli-sci teacher ever

[Mike]

In Iraq Ramadi is being properly invested and the Iraqi army is now hell bent on doing it alone. It doesn't want US help for obvious reasons.

Can we get back all the air strikes, advising, training, and equipment back then?

[Yakhont]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/world ... middleeast

Turkey has increased their troop levels in Northern Iraq to help the Iraqi Kurds there.

So much for descalation. It is clear than Turkey wants to strengthen ties with Iraqi Kurds to counter the increase in influence by Syrian Kurds.

UK have started bombing oil well heads
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35014665

Previously this was avoided since it caused a lot of environmental damage. But since IS refineries were bombed and the crude were sold to the local population operating make shift refineries this is now the only major oil related target left.