Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

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Admiral Piett
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Admiral Piett » Mon 14 Mar 2016 20:05

"Mr Putin also said that Russia's Hmeimim airbase and the its port at Tartus would continue to operate as normal.
He said both must be protected 'from land, air and sea'."

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Mon 14 Mar 2016 20:13

Admiral Piett wrote:"Mr Putin also said that Russia's Hmeimim airbase and the its port at Tartus would continue to operate as normal.
He said both must be protected 'from land, air and sea'."


Yes however this traffic from the Bosporous is an indication:

https://twitter.com/yarinah1/status/704934688234856448


Also in Latakia and Palmyra and Khanasir fronts the key element behind regime gains were the addition of Russian battlegroups shadowing the SAA and Iran. Would be at least a battalion strong.

What also has to be said is that the Airbase in Homs where the Hinds are based at that prevented ISIS from overunning the eastern Homs forward lines several times is not mentioned.

The thing is Russia could have stayed another few months and could have given Lavrov a better chance at the negotiation table. However Iran was completely inflexible and its Iraqi proxies weren't bulging either. Iraqi PMUs have been taunting Iraq's army for a while as well after Russia started bombing in Syria which has led to a slower pace against ISIS in Iraq. But at this point if Iran goes a bit further all in in Syria then I think the Iraqi army will deal with the top 5 Iranian proxies ( because they are depleted substantially at this point via casualties including wounded, exhausted and disillusioned fighters ).

The problem for Iran is that at this point the division in the Gulf council that were evident with Morsi in Egypt and Libya when the Benghazi attack happened and the subsequent UAE and Qatar and Saudi power struggle in those two countries that led to Sisi and the Second Libyan Civil war ( because tens of billions from the gulf had more influence on Libya and Egypt and their stability than the Nato brief air war and this is not debatable ) are not not there. It's a unified position and while Qatar remains the nominally neutral ground for negotiation it is now in line with the Saudi UAE lead. Which means Iran's Hezbollah in Lebanon will be countered. The support for the movements in the South would continue. The money to go into Turkish backed proxies ( and staffed, I know an Allah Ekber when I hear it ) will continue. It will be a war of financial attrition between the Gulf and Iran until Iran cries uncle. And while people compare Iran and the KSA I find that unfair. This is not a KSA only project. Even Jordan is looking at what Iran is doing with disdain as it has to share the burden of Assad's attrocities by feeding and helping millions more.
Last edited by delfo on Mon 14 Mar 2016 20:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby ikalugin » Mon 14 Mar 2016 20:26

We have achieved our objectives and now could withdraw, while keeping our prizes such as the air and naval bases in the region.
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Mon 14 Mar 2016 20:29

ikalugin wrote:We have achieved our objectives and now could withdraw, while keeping our prizes such as the air and naval bases in the region.


No, no , no and a definate no.

You gave a list of what you might want from Turkey and Israel and the Gulf when Iran fails to maintain Assad ( mostly financially, they have to maintain the Syrian currency, the Syrian budget and then pay for the militia they ship). In hopes of getting them eventually. You won't. That's what the smart money says. And for that much money and effort and free gear Marocco and Algeria would have given you three times as much basing.

Given the amount of Bosphorous traffic I would say the withdraw was in progress.

The problem is that you're missing the biggest point of all. Iran's position on what the peace should be has not changed. Russia has a realistic view of a Federation based on local limited autonomy as I described months back. Iran to this day says Assad stays. Assad controls all. Iran calls the shot on what the regime ground forces will do, because they are Iranian paid and manned. In that position you have nothing to do. It's a peace no one but Assad will accept. Not the YPG, not the SDF supporting the YPG, not the Druze, not the Southern FSA, not the Northern FSA which as you saw have the backing of the populace because said populace expelled Nusra yesterday. Not Turkey, not Israel, not the Gulf monarchies, not Jordan, not the KRG. What Russia was looking at was pragmatic. What Iran demands is impossible.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Kolovrat » Mon 14 Mar 2016 21:56

Now I'm completely confused. Why right now? Is it a part of some secret agreement between us and US democratic administration like "US coalition pompously frees Raqqah and thus rehabilitates itself to let old mistress Hillary win"? What will we get in turn?

I was absolutely sure we're going to use operational pause during khamseen to assist SAA to liberate Tadmur while US&Kurds will assault Raqqah.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby frostypooky » Mon 14 Mar 2016 22:26

I am also perplexed by the timing and operational + geopolitical picture of Syria. now is the time more than ever for momentum to execute IS and Nusra, from a casual observer standpoint. there is momentum in Syria, there is momentum in Iraq.

also,

12 or 13 March: "we confirm Turkey has invaded Syria"
14 March: "we're pulling main forces out of Syria"

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Mon 14 Mar 2016 22:30

Kolovrat wrote:Now I'm completely confused. Why right now? Is it a part of some secret agreement between us and US democratic administration like "US coalition pompously frees Raqqah and thus rehabilitates itself to let old mistress Hillary win"? What will we get in turn?

I was absolutely sure we're going to use operational pause during khamseen to assist SAA to liberate Tadmur while US&Kurds will assault Raqqah.


You want the simple answer. Iran is still making impossible demands. Lavrov says the YPG should be invited to the talks and gain autonomy. Iran says no autonomy for any groups, Assad must have full control over all of Syria.

In short Iran's position which in no way changed would have meant a fight at some point with the YPG, with all the rebel groups in the South, diplomatic and maybe not just diplomatic with Israel, tensions impossible oil deal with KSA, impossible oil deal with Iran and so on...

Remember 2 kurds on average a day are being executed in Iran. Another 3 autonomous Kurdish regions ( Afrin, Cizre, Kobane ), no way in Iran's IRGC and ruling council's view.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Killertomato » Tue 15 Mar 2016 00:38

I wonder what will happen to those after the conflict. Maybe they will stay behind, because overhauling and transporting them back to Russia would be quite expansive.


A tank's not an MRAP. They're expensive enough to bring home, especially relatively new armor like a T-90A.

Now I'm completely confused. Why right now? Is it a part of some secret agreement between us and US democratic administration like "US coalition pompously frees Raqqah and thus rehabilitates itself to let old mistress Hillary win"? What will we get in turn?


If you can't see a benefit odds are there isn't one... and Hillary could personally land and singlehandedly establish a perfect peace and it wouldn't make a lick of difference come November. Hell, look at what happened to HW back in 1992. He won the most lopsided victory since the six-day war and the public rewarded him by blasting him out of office in favor of slick willie.
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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Mike » Tue 15 Mar 2016 05:24

Killertomato wrote:Hell, look at what happened to HW back in 1992. He won the most lopsided victory since the six-day war and the public rewarded him by blasting him out of office in favor of slick willie.


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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Tue 15 Mar 2016 09:57

I think I have to quote for Ikalugin what Russia stated the mission in Syria is:

Russia’s goal in Syria is not to support Assad against opposition but stop advance of ISIL and help defeat it

Source :

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/stat ... 0916371456

And how has that been accomplished ?

http://ria.ru/syria_mission/20160315/1389971039.html

The air wing is withdrawing it seems.

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