Guggy wrote:Russia didnt do very well bombing ISIS tbh.
Bad bombing 2016.
I believe our VKS were eager to repeat a 2015' show like this
..but unfortunately there was not enough enemy left. So our VKS were basically restricted to CAS like this
Still quite effective, but, I must agree, not that spectacular.
In this case I believe I would side with Guggy wholeheartedly.
The ammount of bombing the Russian air force directed at ISIS was effective in only one sector of the front (Kweries) and when it comes to the aleppo supply road which is part of that area. Even then the losses suffered by the regime in that sector are greater than ISIS. Mostly due to ISIS employing massed SVBIEDs in groups as a mean to break up attacks and they also possessed captured high end ATGMs ( Metis-Ms are most comonly used there, from stocks of the SAA ). The SAA for example still hasn't released the data from the battalion that was surrounded and then destroyed at Khanasir. They only released the data for the people killed in their operation to re-open the roan. Which in the other stretch from Hama to Ithuya is still disputed due to ISIS controlling a key high ground. It is traversable with armor at risk.
In Tadmur the advance is costing heavy losses but ISIS isn't breaking in the face of Mi 24 pairs operating daily.
In terms of there being not enough targets. I believe the advanceof the Cizre YPG towards the Al Shaddadi and their daily support from coalition planes is indicative of that. Same for Kobane canton in Tisrin dam.
In those operation, the fighting to keep the postions and then the infiltration attack ISIS tried to do on Tel Abyad 3000-4000 ISIS fighters have been killed.
Saying that there aren't enough ISIS fighters isn't realistic. The bombing Russia did wasn't directed at them. The majority of it was in Western Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, Damascus and Sheikh Miskin. Even in Damascus the ISIS pocket isn't attacked as it has a ceasefire with the SAA and an agreement the ISIS fighters there to be moved back to ISIS lines by the SAA. The other pockets do not have that and are under siege.
Furthermore the ability of ISIS to operate was not hampered by the Russian operations. The Khanasir road attack for 2 weeks with 150 -200 dead by ISIS inflicted similar losses on the counter attacking force and the defending force that got surrounded in the first place isn't even discussed. It also didn't improve SAA rear area defenses. Damascus and Homs got targeted in virtually the same areas by massed double tap suicide bombings causing alawites request a change of the military governers but that failed to improve the defense.
What also remains is that there is practically no SAA left to fill in those losses so when territory is lost and then recaptured with Iranian backed militias they are the ones staying there:https://twitter.com/Zarathoustra96/stat ... 0824138752
That made the idea of retraining and improving the quality of the SAA impossible. They couldn't afford the downtime anywhere.