Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Fri 25 Mar 2016 20:15

frostypooky wrote:
Why is a flag rank on the frontline?
Why is a Maj General commanding a unit that is to be commanded by a Major?
How did the artillery which has been located 20 kilometers from the town get attacked?
If the HQ got hit why isn't anyone else reported dead, like the Russian artillery?
Did ISIS SVBIED manage to penetrate through several kms and detonate in the rear?
Are artillery men being thrown in as plain line troops and generals being used as company commanders when in their 60s?


listen--they will defeat the zionists of palestine, the Saudi apostates, and the pindoboys from the J€wnit€d $naKKK€$ of Am€riKKKa as handily as they defeat the terrorist (which is Mission Accomplished as proven by brother Putin). please do not be ageist.



The problem is the source isn't Hassan Ridha.

It's actually this:

https://www.facebook.com/palmyra.news.network1/

And they said Brigade when they reported it 2 hours ago. Not a battalion commander. They also question all the advances reported but right now the only ones reporting anything are the SANA reporters and all their pics are from mostly the same places. Around that villa and from a few days ago ( no sandstorm visible).

At this point that is the only thing the SAA has a monopoly on. Reports from the area. If you follow those the city should have fallen but it's just the SAA. The thing is we know how a city is defended because of Ramadi and the Golden division special forces did a tour on explaining how you dismantle ISIS IEDs in their front areas and the quantity you will find. Hence everything reported is suspect as it conflicts their primary sources to begin with. Going inside a city that has been held by ISIS would require IED experts and lots of them. Not something you go through in a matter of hours. It was the same with the Aleppo supply road, it tooks days to clear that from IEDs.

I am searching for confirmation video evidence but the closest I got was from here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.54 ... 9&z=16&m=b

A reporter overlooking the area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WVedbR ... e=youtu.be



Edit:

Well it seems there is fighting inside the city being reported by other sources:
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 5974299648

I stand corrected, the regime broke through it seems.

Edit 2:

A pro regime source is denying that the SAA have surrounded the city ( by capturing the airport )

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 8273094656

Tomorrow is going to be weird for maps...

EDIT 3:

Now markito is also repeating the link I gave earlier:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 5597253633

https://www.facebook.com/revo.palmyra3/ ... 6901200254

( and again this was the news outlet recomended by the expert on ISIS https://twitter.com/hxhassan?lang=en )

It says all claims by Peto lucem for major advances today are bogus.

Edit 4:

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 9294739460

It seems the maps by Peto lucem can, well be thrown out at this point. They are vastly over ambitious.

A classification would be:

Spoiler : "wrong" :
Image


Spoiler : "trash tier" :
Image


FinalEDIT:

https://t.co/HI2RK7s5QF

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35898995

This should be used to show all the people around the world who claim "Western media only reports against Assad". All the major news networks ran with this because that's what they usually run with, a copy of the Assad English Language news from SANA TV. If someone wants to tell me how Assad never gets his story in the "Western Media" ( whatever that might be, I consider Bulgaria's news networks based in Sofia to be to the East of that metaphorical line) I can just point to that. And the internet and recently Syrian Civil War is full of those, they can just go cry me a river.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Killertomato » Sat 26 Mar 2016 00:06

I prefer the Delfo News Network myself.
orcbuster wrote:USSR gets prototype marsupials, why would you need moose when you got stuff with kickers like that AND transport capability? And I'm not even gonna START on the french Marsupilami, I don't even think thats a real animal! Why no trolls for Norway?

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 26 Mar 2016 00:13

Killertomato wrote:I prefer the Delfo News Network myself.


Well the latest claim by a SAA reporter is much more modest:

http://a.top4top.net/p_84v1se1.jpg

And honestly I doubt this neighbourhood is in SAA hands:
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 0&z=15&m=b

Or the castle:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 6&z=15&m=b

But I can be persuaded about the castle sort of.

What is not in SAA hands but was reported to be :

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.61 ... 4&z=15&m=b

And that means that on this map:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CebQrYfW8AAZdzt.jpg:large

The green from Al Bayarat to Ar Rab'ah should not be green but purple and a bit of mixed colour.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Yakhont » Sat 26 Mar 2016 10:37

Does anyone have comprehensive sources of numbers on the strength and composition of the all/most factions now in Syria? Now that the fighting has settled in most of the country it should be much easier to do an audit.

This article suggests that
In the spring of 2015 was to remain in the army, selbige shrunk to 110000-130000 man, and that's not all: "The Russians were indeed quite shocked when they arrived (Autumn 2015 Note.) And from them by Damascus reported 130,000 Syrian soldiers perhaps 25,000 at all capable of fighting or were equipped, "says Georg Mader from international military journal" IHS Jane's Defence "to" Press ".

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/ausse ... ern.portal

This is another paper on informal networks and patronage have strengthened the SAA, and its ongoing manpower strategy and deployment

http://carnegie-mec.org/2016/03/10/stre ... ience/iuz7
Image

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 26 Mar 2016 12:27

@Yakhont

We have ballpark numbers based on the IRGC units rotated.

At the start of February there were 5-6 IRGC battalions in Northern Aleppo alone.

This would put the IRGC component close to an oversized Brigade unit of 4000-5000 people:

https://www.reddit.com/r/iranpolitics/c ... egathread/

That is on top of their overall deployment of 2000 to oversee their other aqssets.

The Afghan Fatimids Foreign Legion for the IRGC would sit at around total commitment of 20000

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/i ... 55206.html

and regular size in the country of around 5000-6000 at the very least in a few places:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/29/ira ... ight-syria

The Iraqi Shia militas
Badr brigades had at one time 6 out of 10 brigades deployed in Syria. Their reported total strength is around 25-30 k.
The Righteous Army should have a permanent footprint of around 10k varying to 20 k mostly based in central Syria and around Damascus.
Kata-ib Hezbollah should also reatain a pressence of similar proportions in Syria.

And then you get smaller groups adding a few thousand here and there.

A source even though at this point incomplete for these groups can be found here:

http://historicoblog3.blogspot.bg/p/la- ... r-ici.html

But yes the estimate that there were below 130 0000 SAA and NDF troops by mid 2015 is accurate. And the portion of 25000 back at that time being available for active operations was also accurate. At this point you might as well halve that number. The SAA does not exist as a force on the ground in any meaningful capacity on any front. For example the KIA from the SAA from their remaining SAA Marines stood at 70 confirmed KIA for the period 21st to 23rd of March. That means the battalion to regimental sized unit has lost 2 companies worth of men killed and wounded including its commander.



As to Palmyra

Image

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 3535385600

This means the tank is here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 1&z=17&m=b

And based on the zoom the shot was more likely taken from here with a 2 -3 times magnification, the distance in this case would be 750 meters from the tank's position versus 400 if taken from the parapet on the side of the castle.:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 0&z=18&m=b

This is reported to be 800 meters from the ancient city:

Image

Image

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 2976872449

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 9249466368

The berm in question is here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 0&z=18&m=b

The SAA isn't storming the area and ISIS is doing night counter attacks with emphasis on CQC. From the photos I see the concentration of the SAA at the front of Palmyra to be standing at 2-3 companies and 4-5 tanks. That's not enough to storm or hold the area come night fall. Even their platoon groupings seem to understrengthed from the picture.

And the ISW :

http://post.understandingwar.org/map/ba ... march-2016

With the correction that the palm groves were advanced upon yesterday. Not on the 24th.

PS Another decent source

https://misterxanlisis.wordpress.com/20 ... serie-1-1/

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 26 Mar 2016 18:38

And the expected result from all the rushed attempts to take the citadel has come to pass.

The people grouped there have been hit by a mortar round:

3 senior officers from the SAA:
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 3752736768

A Major General, A Brigadier General and a Colonel. Lower rank SAA casualties are not disclosed but did happen including KIAs.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... 9907311616

Including 8 hezbollah and a reporter. The SOHR is saying:

http://www.syriahr.com/?p=163356
http://www.syriahr.com/?p=163363
http://www.syriahr.com/?p=163369

That based on their reports the Regime has not entered the town and is still trying to breach the berms I linked earlier. Also it would seem that the Northern Subburbs are also in ISIS hands. Unless this has gone WW1 and the regime is shelling it's own troops:

Image

The make believe stories continue:

https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/ ... 7508039680

One SAA reporter from Latakia said this. Although he's on Leith Fadel's "News Site" sooo calling him a reporter is pushing it. They get exclusives but they also get orders to push propaganda... When Iblib fell they reported that the SAA was actually counter attacking and gaining more land...

While the embedded reporter said:

https://twitter.com/AboZain6/status/713630541178912769

And added they were never inside the airport.

The SAA KIA that have been identified on social networks by name alone are standing at over 100. Then Hezbollah, Russia, IRGC, Shia militias have to be added. I am going to say this is needlessly reckless to just charge in. The dead and wounded are pilling up in the hundreds.

The war of map continues:

Image

And the sources embedded with the SAA say :

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 6065792000

AKA the map is Bull.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Killertomato » Sat 26 Mar 2016 21:55

I kinda hope this thread/links stay around forever.
orcbuster wrote:USSR gets prototype marsupials, why would you need moose when you got stuff with kickers like that AND transport capability? And I'm not even gonna START on the french Marsupilami, I don't even think thats a real animal! Why no trolls for Norway?

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 26 Mar 2016 22:38

Killertomato wrote:I kinda hope this thread/links stay around forever.


Why ? Also probably not. Twitter deletes things, but it can be archived.

I think this is close to reality of what is happenig right now but the mid section of Palmyra is a bit off:

Image

The casualties. Regime lost dozens dead today, they had to call in cluster bombs to get the northern subburbs

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/713801118913060870

And mi 28s
https://twitter.com/bm27_uragan/status/ ... 9355921409

Control however based on what was shown in Ramadi is a strong word. ISIS must have tunnels and dug in areas and timed explosives left in there. Night time counter attacks are also happening.

The most accurate at this point would be this map:

Image

This would be a reliable estimate as to how deep the regime has gotten in:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 6&z=16&m=b

The cost, I'd say over 300 KIA for the last week, heck maybe around 500. No one even counts the Shia militias and the Iranian Afghan Foreign legion ( the Fatimid brigades) , Hezbollah has given a few dozens. Russia three confirmed.

This is the list of the dead transfered to Tartus today:

https://twitter.com/BassamJaara/status/ ... 9729941504

Image

58 names and it doesn't include the latest dead and the flag officers.

Here are another 110 names:

Image

Similar lists have been popping up. One had I a similar number for the duration of 21st to 23rd. Daily losses are in the tens of killed. This might not be sparta but it's madness. And that's Tartus. You also have Latakia, Damascus and Homs.



https://twitter.com/BrunFree/status/713777450577227777

And there are friendly fire incidents like this when you mass bomb areas and you have next to no coordination. 20 regime combatants dead. That brings the total to 37 regime combatants killed by Russia. This is if it's confirmed but it looks correct for the crazyness of the offensive.

And another claim :

Image

https://twitter.com/PalmyraRev1/status/ ... 6171578368

It claims the Amiriyah subburb has not fallen so that is suspect. Though it could be only partially controlled or the SAA could have retreated. The other areas it claims are under ISIS control correspond with what the maps show.


I think we know who is leading the offensive and that is why he is missing, MILINTarctrooper has assumed overall command in Palmyra.


PS
Palmyra will not be a tourist attraction ever again:

https://twitter.com/PalmyraRev1/status/ ... 8266911747

The castle will mostly collapse it seems. To storm in they well , went full Grozny on it.

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Kolovrat » Sun 27 Mar 2016 09:34

Palmyra is generally liberated. VKS made 40 combat sorties. Congratulations to SAA and Syrian people.



http://syria.mil.ru/peacemaking_bulletins/more.htm?id=12081622@egNews

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Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sun 27 Mar 2016 10:00

Kolovrat wrote:Palmyra is generally liberated. VKS made 40 combat sorties. Congratulations to SAA and Syrian people.



http://syria.mil.ru/peacemaking_bulletins/more.htm?id=12081622@egNews



That would be incorrect. And I am sorry to say but those sources you listed have been doing some of the least credible reporting the last few days. They announced Palmyra's airport to have been captured 3 times in 3 days when no one even got to it.

https://www.facebook.com/revo.palmyra3/ ... 1591138785

Google translate says this:

System, Russia and Hezbollah did not take control until the moment full of the city.
They took control of the day on each of:
- Parts of the northern district.
- West Side as a whole.
- Archaeological area and its surroundings.
Suburb of Amiriyah neighborhood and industry players.
# # Tnzim_ath Daash still dominates:
- The eastern district.
- East neighborhood.
- Northern district
- South East orchards.
And the clashes are still continuing in the vicinity of neighborhoods controlled by the organization, in conjunction with dozens of Russian raids on the city and its environs, as well as artillery and ballistic missile programs.


Also the Airport is not in SAA control nor is the archeological site or the old city, that is split within the orchards, as the orchards dominate it. It may very well fall by tonight but at this point, the Regime controls around half of the town. The Airport hasn't even been touched and it is reinforced and has defenses build out of HAS.

And Ivan Sidorenko confirms it :

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 0432415744


On another note the auditions for Mad Max Broken Home continue:

Image

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