Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sat 19 Mar 2016 18:10

Grabbed_by_the_Spets wrote:Russian bombing was probably ineffective in the long haul, but that's because most bombings of ISIS are ineffective. ISIS, a derivative of Al-Qaeda, which is yet again a derivative of the Mujahideen have been bombed for decades by now, and have learned effective tactics against aerial strikes.

Although I have no doubt the airstrikes hampered the logistics of ISIS, the biggest effect Russia has made is by it's boots on the ground.


And tanks. After all a tank forces commander got the medal.

The problem however remains. Assad without Russia and Iran can't muster the men to cover even half that is considered his at the moment. His manpower pool is tapped out. The killed, maimed and missing make up all his remaining forces and within the ranks things are not even stable. The NDF and Rep Guard clashed with 4th Armored it seems after the withdraw was announced and then Maher Al Assad ( de facto commander of the 4th if not de jure ) was moved to the central command. Loyalist soldiers are on edge. Some times they even fire upon IRGC and then get promptly executed, senior officers fight with each other, one of the generals was executed in the general staff building.

It's not stable at all and while Russia assures them they will still help and stay they only see a fraction of the old support and are expecting a total pullout leading to moral again aligning with the ground level. I have to check with my friends in Egypt who talk to regime backers with whom they work who fled to Egypt to avoid the draft. Earlier they were boasting how Russia would crush all now they are on the other spectrum. The arab armies of the SAA type are very easily breakable due to moral being so easy to manipulate.

This brings me back to my initial point. The SAA and the NDF were the least capable army in the conflict. The FSA, the Jihadists and the Islamist factions do not break when hit by IEDs. They don't retreat even under fierce bombardment and when facing overwhelming forces of armor. The SAA and NDF, most of their units just melt in that case. The loss off Tadmur, the 100 prisoners taken in DEZ, the fall of Morek in a single night, the recent encirclement of Khanasir they all point that the SAA has had that problem and continues to have it.

Additionally I have to say ISIS is far beyond the point it was when it was operating side by side with the Iranian backed Iraqi shia militias that are now sent against it. ISIS employes deep trench networks and tunnels and bunkers dug in to keep positions. The Shia militias mostly use earth berms. ISIS utilizes separate forces for defense and counter attack to have rested troops. The shia militias use the same usually, so does the NDF. The result is that offense and defense is done by the same unit deployed in the area. ISIS defenses may look more strained but when they launch a counter attack at moment just before the defense is about to break they manage to overturn the outcome far more often. SAA and NDF tanks still cookoff. ISIS uses single round loading. It is slower but there is never more than one round inside the tank. Also ISIS uses dummy vehicles and tanks made out of plywood. Those are effective in being honey pots. For night fighting ISIS utilizes aluminum lined ponshos and tents put on top of foxholes to confuse night ops gear. ISIS focuses on sniper training with anti material rifles build from ZSU 23 gun barrels after they are recycled. That improves their ability to counter technicals. Then you have the new thing which are body armor carrying and storm tactics trained foot soldiers packing 20 kilos of explosives. They attack with mortar support. Infiltrate the enemy line enter cqc and then get detonated by the local commander after they die or run out of ammo. Used in groups of 20-40 people they breach entire sectors and can devastate more than a company. At that point the regulars follow and roll up the remaining defense.

This is all an evolution of the recent years. ISIS has advanced past the faction that was in Iraq 5-6 years ago. We're basically watching evolution of a super bacteria in a way.

User avatar
Killertomato
More than 10 000 messages. Soldier you are the leader of all armies!
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon 9 Jul 2012 02:46
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby Killertomato » Sat 19 Mar 2016 21:09

This is all an evolution of the recent years. ISIS has advanced past the faction that was in Iraq 5-6 years ago. We're basically watching evolution of a super bacteria in a way.


Yeah no kidding. That's some impressive capability, especially considering how much worse of a job national militaries with years of prep time and billions of dollars have done/are doing.
orcbuster wrote:USSR gets prototype marsupials, why would you need moose when you got stuff with kickers like that AND transport capability? And I'm not even gonna START on the french Marsupilami, I don't even think thats a real animal! Why no trolls for Norway?

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sun 20 Mar 2016 01:43

Killertomato wrote:
This is all an evolution of the recent years. ISIS has advanced past the faction that was in Iraq 5-6 years ago. We're basically watching evolution of a super bacteria in a way.


Yeah no kidding. That's some impressive capability, especially considering how much worse of a job national militaries with years of prep time and billions of dollars have done/are doing.


That's the other thing. When people try to defend the SAA and the IRGC online they always forget that the IRGC and the SAA had as a main adversary the IDF which they wanted to meet and either defeat or fight to a standstill in a conventional war.

Can they even fathom that, bleep no.

This remains in Syria :

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cd7KdIoUkAIkK0x.jpg

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/even- ... ia-remains

11 Su24
4 Su 30
3 Su 35
5 Su 34
1 Mi 28
1 Ka 52
1 Il 20

After this much have left:

https://twitter.com/Ald_Aba/status/710534531841978369

So far 8 SU-25 (44,53,27,25,22,24,31,21) RED,3 Su-24M2 (81, 78, 79,),4 Su-34 left the base in #Syra.15 planes.Helo fleet joined by Ka52 Mi28


Based on the eneven numbers ( 9 Su 34s or 3 Su 35s, 14 Su 24s and 8 Su 25, single Mi 28 and KA 52, not even pairs, no visible Mi 8s and Mi 24s for SAR which are known to be still deployed at the base for obvious reasons such as range) I would say extra planes and helicopters are under hangars, in the air or on the other tarmac strip, like Su 35s should be in pairs Su 34ks should not be 9, lower estimates put them at 8, which it can be said is now visible to be wrong higher figures like the ones said by the base commander has mentioned in front of sputnik to be as high as 12

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151 ... rgets.html

Finally if you look at the ongoing construstion and expansion and you couple it with the civil works done at Shariyat Base in Homs where the rest of the helicopters are it makes the claims of 460 million USD or 33 billion rubles even more dubious.

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Sun 20 Mar 2016 14:33

T90 has been found:

https://vk.com/wall-66283435?q=%23%D0%A ... 435_574531

Shtora damaged. Number on the fender matches. Missing ERA plates. ( Actually they seem to be there but just crooked when it comes to the side) No idea what the plastic's doing on top of the turret. New remote weapons station maybe? Or an improvised cover from rain and dust for the bits damaged during the hit ?

Image

There also were Israeli citizens killed and wounded in the Istanbul attack:

https://twitter.com/IsraelMFA/status/711406214589054976

And an empty returning freighter from the Syrian express:

https://twitter.com/alperboler/status/7 ... 3633875968

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Mon 21 Mar 2016 04:56

Pop Quiz, how many vehicles were used to make this:

Image

The answer might surprise you:
http://spioenkop.blogspot.bg/2016/03/th ... th-of.html

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Mon 21 Mar 2016 12:35

And then this happens:

http://tass.ru/en/politics/863907

Moscow will use military force if Russia gets no response to its ceasefire control proposals from the United States


If Russia doesn't get a response from the US on the proposals for the cease fire Russia will start killing Syrians.

Point 1, it never really stopped, the group that most often violated the cease fire is called the Russian Armed Forces.

Point 2, the US responding to cease fire proposals is not up to the factions on the ground.

Point 3, the US is in no way the single force that can make that decision.

Point 4, the cease fire regime and the remaining questions are for the group meeting in Geneva to discuss and decide.


In short this is a derailment of the ceasefire so someone can be blamed for the failure and not the biggest offender, Assad and Russia. It creates a fake issue which has an impossible problem which deals with non existant criteria and holds Syrians hostage for the failure to act on something the US does not control to begin with.


Also Khataib Hezbollah in Iraq is declaring it will fight the US armed forces in Iraq citing that the US is allied with ISIS.

http://almasalah.com/ar/news/71632/%D9% ... 9%8A%D8%A7

They seem to be blaming the Iraqi shia militias failure( part of which Kataib Hezbollah is ) to capture Fallujah on the US keeping ISIS alive because the US was helping ISIS in their view.

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Fri 25 Mar 2016 14:15

This is going to be a long one I think. I shall call it destination Palmyra... Orchards... or closish.

For a start the number of Russian troops who have died in Syria and are confirmed has risen to 8:

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-military- ... 16224.html

5 were alwarded medals for their service for dying prior to the release of the pictures.

2 were released in pictures by ISIS ( with a claim of another 3 by ISIS ) and a last one was identified as this officer in the report.

Leith Fadel claims that for the assault on the city there are now 6 000 troops.

This is after the meat grinded before hand in which the Russian and Iranian soldiers were confirmed dead.

I would say there were 7000 -8000 frontline troops sent there since the begining of March. Another 2000 in the area of Al-Qaryatayn which is being fought over as it is close to the supply road. By that estimate the total forces commited including artillery and helicopters as well as checpoint guards along the road and supply should be over 20000.

The gains however are modest.

Image

Image

This was the position yesterday.

Image

This is indicative of the situation today with an exception. The key photo and video proof is generally from here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.51 ... 2&z=15&m=b

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.53 ... 343640;0;0

That's 5 kilometers away. from the entrance of the city. The closest point of advance has been the Semiramis hotel, though that has not been shown in pictures as far as I have seen:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.52 ... 230167;0;0

3 kms further in and another 2,5-3 from the city and beyond the old town. The story people went with is more like:

"SAA enters Palmyra."

or the less braggy but still inaccurate :

https://twitter.com/alghadeertv_eng/sta ... 9080424448

Here you can see that the pictures are from the qatari villa 5 kms away.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sc ... untryside/


Here you can see the drone footage and the lack of SAA concentration at the Semiramis Hotel, it starts at the point of the hotel being shown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFHcIm9 ... u.be&t=11s

So in short the Peto lucem map seems overly optimistic and Oryx backs that up with info that ISIS is producing from what happens to the SAA assaults:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 9273472001


Furthermore the last 10 days saw 2 dust storms, one of which is going on right now which makes attacking with no visibility into an enemy that uses massed suicide vehicles and strom troopers suicidal, no pun intended. Additionally this means correction and intel cannot be performed. It also means BAI strikes cannot be done against ISIS reinforcement and resupply columns.

As to the Syrian marines that Double mentioned. They got hit by a SVBIED as they approached in a column and or were bombed by the Russian air force:

https://twitter.com/Syria_Protector/sta ... 6775858176

Spoiler : graphic :
https://twitter.com/ilyushin76/status/712040979293999104


The dead included their commander and some officers. Also after a few days of fighting in the meat grinder where the majority of the SAA dead were from Tartarus the unit is more or less spent:

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 4178542592

We're talking daily loses in the tens of KIAs. This is based on this pro Assad twitter user's announcements of SAA dead ( he calls them martyrs as well, it's the Middle East, everyon does it ).

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1

This is the twitter handle advised by Hassan Hassan. He literally wrote the book on ISIS so I am more likely to consider his reporting as accurate than Leith Fadel and Peto Lucem's overly optimistic maps.

https://twitter.com/PalmyraRev1/status/ ... 9649793028


As to the Iranian contingent:

Afghans
https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/statu ... 1090995201
https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/statu ... 1045927937

Rare tanks:

T72B OBR 1989
https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/statu ... 1090995201
T90
https://twitter.com/DPRKJones/status/713074909132546048

Hesbollah are also there as mentioned earlier, as are regular IRGC :

http://fa.abna24.com/service/iran/archi ... story.html


With the Mi 35s being withdrawn and the dust storms breaking the momentum as well as allowing ressuply and the horrific casualties I think it is most likely that the offensive will run out of steam and ISIS will retain 1000 fighters in the Al-Qaryatayn area and town making a storming of the entrenched position there with the regime manpower available not possibel. Similarly 2000-2500 will remain in and around Palmyra by the time the Regime gets closer meaning it will not even enjoy a 2 to 1 advantage in the city fighting.

Mi 35 in an An 124 plane:
https://twitter.com/bm27_uragan/status/ ... 0040454144

If Ramadi has been any indication pushing through such a number of fighters inside such an area quickly with the tunnels and trenches and booby traps as well as tunnels leading suicide squads into the rear coupled with the dust storms would mean the town will not fall. I even think the regime losses will be much higher than ISIS just because of this undue urgency. Furthermore Ramadi was encircled. The supply route from Al Sukhanh is not cut in any way.
Last edited by delfo on Fri 25 Mar 2016 18:42, edited 1 time in total.

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Fri 25 Mar 2016 18:29

Here is why I question what the SAA aligned sources say :

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 2545482756

#SAA
Maj. Gen. Sha'ban Al-'Oja
Commander of the 64th Artillery Battalion
Martyred at #Tadmor


Then they give this map which is overly optimistic because there were clips from today :

Image

If these were the lines :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6wRJH3 ... e=youtu.be

Which would be made from this point:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 7&z=16&m=b

Also that is a clear sky on mid day with a dust storm forming in the middle. It will get dark brown to red.

This video should be impossible to film from that point by civilians trapped inside the area. And then this is said:

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 3285656576

#SAA are attacking #Tadmor from 3 fronts: NE towards highway & airport, N towards Al-Amiriyah and from the W towards ancient #Palmyra


It boggles the mind a bit. Or a lot. Mostly a lot.

delfo
Major-General
Posts: 3735
Joined: Wed 6 Aug 2014 19:57
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby delfo » Fri 25 Mar 2016 18:30

Here is why I question what the SAA aligned sources say :

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 2545482756

#SAA
Maj. Gen. Sha'ban Al-'Oja
Commander of the 64th Artillery Battalion
Martyred at #Tadmor


Why is a flag rank on the frontline?
Why is a Maj General commanding a unit that is to be commanded by a Major?
How did the artillery which has been located 20 kilometers from the town get attacked?
If the HQ got hit why isn't anyone else reported dead, like the Russian artillery?
Did ISIS SVBIED manage to penetrate through several kms and detonate in the rear?
Are artillery men being thrown in as plain line troops and generals being used as company commanders when in their 60s?


Then they give this map which is overly optimistic because there were clips from today :

Image

If these were the lines :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6wRJH3 ... e=youtu.be

Which would be made from this point:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 7&z=16&m=b

And the bombed area would be in SAA control according to the map, not even contested:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.56 ... 6&z=16&m=b

Also that is a clear sky on mid day with a dust storm forming in the middle. It will get dark brown to red.

This video should be impossible to film from that point by civilians trapped inside the area. And then this is said:

https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/ ... 3285656576

#SAA are attacking #Tadmor from 3 fronts: NE towards highway & airport, N towards Al-Amiriyah and from the W towards ancient #Palmyra


It boggles the mind a bit. Or a lot. Mostly a lot.

User avatar
frostypooky
Lieutenant General
Posts: 4334
Joined: Thu 1 Aug 2013 14:12
Contact:

Re: Islamic State/Coalition Bombing Mega Thread

Postby frostypooky » Fri 25 Mar 2016 20:00

Why is a flag rank on the frontline?
Why is a Maj General commanding a unit that is to be commanded by a Major?
How did the artillery which has been located 20 kilometers from the town get attacked?
If the HQ got hit why isn't anyone else reported dead, like the Russian artillery?
Did ISIS SVBIED manage to penetrate through several kms and detonate in the rear?
Are artillery men being thrown in as plain line troops and generals being used as company commanders when in their 60s?


listen--they will defeat the zionists of palestine, the Saudi apostates, and the pindoboys from the J€wnit€d $naKKK€$ of Am€riKKKa as handily as they defeat the terrorist (which is Mission Accomplished as proven by brother Putin). please do not be ageist.

Return to “Off-Topic”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests