Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby jmpveg22 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:29

Hollywood Myth wrote:The most likely way Perestroika can save the USSR is if it begins earlier, say in 1982, after Brezhnev's death.


100% Agree... though i do still think that in 1988 there was a chance though far slimmer for the USSR to survive and the reforms to be successful. I really think the way nationalist movements were handled (or more specifically not handled and allowed to fester) did the USSR in.

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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Iveliar » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:39

Actually USSR collapsed by a one main reason - The Soviet economic system couldn't stand the unequal competition with the United States on the issue of the arms race. We has a comparable weapons with US but... we off the another parts of economy. Problems of soviet economy had a systemic nature and actually has lots of times from 1960 x where reforms were needed. Unfortunately, the USSR couldn't has same military and standards of life lvl together with a NATO, because NATO just has more people.

And really survivend of the USSR was not a matter of competence of the Soviet leaders but question of a incompetence of a US leaders. Of course exist a ways how USSR could have survived, but it's mainly lucky case and the question of brilliant leader but... Gorbachev recently said what he "was arrogant when thinking that he could remake USSR" The laws of statistics and large-numbers is rather ruthless and Soviets economican sustem was aren't effective enough to overcome the US economican superity. It's itself is incredibly that the Soviet Union played the game for so long.

So - answer why USSR collapsed is so simply. After WW-2 USA has a 55% of world GDP, when USSR has near 20% of GDP, lost 20 million civilian people and half part of USSR has devastated by the War. Russian polulation still can't recover from the atrocities of the Nazis. As a result, the USSR had to strain every power and mobilize everything when USA just had far more money and people.

All what happened after was inevitable. Perhaps we could hope for a miracle? Or coalition with a China?
Last edited by OpusTheFowl on Sun 4 Jan 2015 20:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby BTR » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:49

1 - Since the first two waves of perestroika reforms (1985-1986/1987-1988) did not succeed as planned - pause the program, and depose the person in charge (Gorbi). Replace him and his crew in KPSS with someone more traditional. For the lack of better alternatives - players from GKChP of 1991.

2 - Cut back on freedom of press and art (sorry Kino and others) to repress dissidents being the stars of the show.

3 - Pull out of Afghanistan.

4 - Negotiate limited and planned capitalism for PACT members and use their countries as an actual economic buffer zone. Pull back a sizable amount of forces from Germany, split them and station a portion of them in several other countries to aid local governments. Split Czechoslovakia, establishing two friendly regimes. Sell all that under "Ending cold war tentions, economic change and "modernization of communism".

5 - Urgently re-establish ties with China and ask advisory notes on how to replicate "Friendly Socialism". Namely a) establish limited private ownership with government support and b) open to foreign investment. Sell all as in point 4.

6 - Cut military spending. Use the remaining portion of forces from Germany to replace outdated equipment in-land, sell/lease/trade older equipment to friendly African and other regimes. Reduce the army to 2.5m.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Rorschach » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:52

terror51247 wrote:The soviet union was a multinational country.Such countries can only be held together be repression and authoritarism.Had glanost never happened, the ussr would still exist today.


One would argue that it was impossible to hold back revolution for much longer. Poland had already practically rebelled, and the USSR wasn't strong enough to stem revolution in all of its oppressed states.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby terror51247 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:55

Rorschach wrote:
terror51247 wrote:The soviet union was a multinational country.Such countries can only be held together be repression and authoritarism.Had glanost never happened, the ussr would still exist today.


One would argue that it was impossible to hold back revolution for much longer. Poland had already practically rebelled, and the USSR wasn't strong enough to stem revolution in all of its oppressed states.

The repression would save the ussr, not its vassals.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby LoneRifle » Sun 4 Jan 2015 16:47

terror51247 wrote:The repression would save the ussr, not its vassals.


This. And even then, we saw how Chechnya ended.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby anto-shturmovik » Sun 4 Jan 2015 18:35

I can see 2 main ways the USSR would have survived (but how long ?) :

1/Increased repression. The success of the '91 coup could have led to a seizure of the power by hardline members of the party, who would have put an end by force to the growing protests in the USSR and in satellite countries. But I don't think this could have worked on the long run, another Gorbi would probably have emerged sooner or later.

2/Progressive democratisation. Read Russian Spring by Norman Spinrad : Growing economic and political ties between the USSR and the rest of Europe could have led to a semi-capitalistic economy, and de facto democracy (Old structures of the party are kept, but with real elections).
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby LoneRifle » Sun 4 Jan 2015 19:47

The USSR could never survive free elections....... The Baltics and Ukraine would be gone in a heartbeat.
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby BTR » Sun 4 Jan 2015 19:49

LoneRifle wrote:The USSR could never survive free elections....... The Baltics and Ukraine would be gone in a heartbeat.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Un ... ndum,_1991
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Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby jmpveg22 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 19:51

BTR wrote:
LoneRifle wrote:The USSR could never survive free elections....... The Baltics and Ukraine would be gone in a heartbeat.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Un ... ndum,_1991

he beat me to it...

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