Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

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Mike
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Mike » Wed 26 Oct 2016 21:08

Pr.shadocko wrote:
Darkmil wrote:Interesting. You're right, in France I don't believe we have military history courses, or even history curriculum focused on military theme. It should be a good reason for me to go again to Canada :)


They actually exist in France but they are quite rare (Sorbonne, Montpellier and through a military course) .


I believe it's also offered at my university in the states as well.
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby LoneRifle » Wed 26 Oct 2016 22:47

There was one at mine as well.
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Admiral Piett » Fri 28 Oct 2016 04:48

I just answered an interesting question in the YouTube comments:

Question:

[Paraphrasing] You mention that both American and Japanese aerial reconnaissance was "equally terrible" during the early stages of the war. Every documentary I have seen in the past said the Japanese were significantly worse in this area. What's the deal?

Answer:

Straight from the excellent article I was referencing:

"Among the reasons for defeat at Midway, one of the most routinely cited is the “inadequate” morning search made by Kidō Butai, wherein seven aircraft were launched to cover most of the fleet’s eastern flank. The analysis made by the U.S. Naval War College’s Admiral Richard Bates in 1948 was one of the first to put across this idea, and in many respects it has stood the test of time. Likewise, it bears noticing that in attempting to fix blame for the defeat, Fuchida and Admiral Ugaki Matome, chief of staff of the Combined Fleet at the time, both chose to criticize retroactively the search methodology used at Midway. However, upon closer examination, it can be seen that Nagumo’s searches were on par with Japanese conventions at that time. Indeed, they were also not worse than contemporary U.S. carrier searches, given similar prebattle intelligence...

In cases where carriers were not expected, searches could be scanty to downright nonexistent. For instance, Admiral Yamaguchi, despite his reputation for alertness and aggressiveness, did not bother launching a long-range advance search when CarDiv 2 arrived off Wake Island to deliver its attack on 21 December 1941...

Nor were Japanese searches markedly worse than those used by the Americans at this time. For instance, during
the U.S. carrier raids in February and March against Makin, Kwaja-lein, Jaluit, Marcus, and other locations, there
were apparently no morning searches before the attack launches. Had the three Japanese carriers anchored at Truk in early February (Akagi, Kaga, and Zuikaku) had timely intelligence, they might have surprised the Americans, with disastrous consequences...

In sum, Nagumo’s searches at Midway may have turned out to be inadequate, but they represented the norm for
both sides at this point in the war. They were certainly not especially different from that norm or lacking in some special way. They cannot be described as “mistaken,” unless one chooses to criticize the bulk of 1942 carrier searches (which would be, perhaps, fair enough). The flaws of Nagumo’s and Genda’s search plan at Midway were systemic and characteristic of everyone’s “learning curve” at the time."

Tully, Anthony and Lu Yu. “A Question of Estimates: How Faulty Intelligence Drove Scouting at the Battle of Midway.” Naval War College Review 68:2 (2015): 85-99.

This article is publicly available, and I highly recommend giving it a read.

https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/fb6 ... nce-D.aspx

As for when this behavior in search patterns changed for both sides, I can't say off the top of my head. Both the Japanese and Americans dramatically improved their air searches throughout the war. There was never a clear advantage of one side's aerial recon over the other when you look back over the carrier battles. They spotted each other at roughly the same time on some occasions (i.e. Battle of Santa Cruz Islands), on others the Americans spotted the Japanese first (i.e. Battle of Midway), and on others the Japanese spotted the Americans first (i.e. Battle of the Philippine Sea, not that it helped them any).

This is a brand new argument (a little over a year old) by Tully and Yu, so no documentaries address it. Even good ones tend to rely a lot on badly dated historiography around the Battle of Midway, most notably Fuchida's largely fabricated chain of events.

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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Frencho » Fri 28 Oct 2016 18:00

Pr.shadocko wrote:
Darkmil wrote:Interesting. You're right, in France I don't believe we have military history courses, or even history curriculum focused on military theme. It should be a good reason for me to go again to Canada :)


They actually exist in France but they are quite rare (Sorbonne, Montpellier and through a military course) .


Indeed, in France strict Military history are PhD studies (Doctorat) or Masters (Maîtrise), and never Bachelors (License).
All are done in partnership with military academies such as l’École spéciale militaire de Saint-Cyr-Coëtquidan, l'École de guerre, Centre d’Etudes Stratégiques de la Marine (CESM), École de l'air etc...

Paris-Sorbonne IV
Montpellier III

Then there's the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po). Not really a History course but it's the most similar to Piett university studies. thematic concentrations and regional concentrations. Plus Interdisciplinary graduate programs. Lastly there's also a double master with Saint-Cyr, you end up as a commissioned officer.

France is very coy with the access to their archives. That's why you need to be at least under an official partnership with the different military branches if you want to do research. Most research is still done in-house by the respective military academies.

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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Killertomato » Tue 1 Nov 2016 00:48

The Chieftain just posted about this on facebook... Piett is e-Famous!
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Admiral Piett » Tue 1 Nov 2016 02:22

Killertomato wrote:The Chieftain just posted about this on facebook... Piett is e-Famous!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cqt54s ... e&t=18m42s

Well then. This is news to me. :lol:

He also plays Wargame: Red Dragon apparently.

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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Mike » Wed 2 Nov 2016 01:40

Admiral Piett wrote:
Killertomato wrote:The Chieftain just posted about this on facebook... Piett is e-Famous!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Cqt54s ... e&t=18m42s

Well then. This is news to me. :lol:

He also plays Wargame: Red Dragon apparently.


I guess he's also a forum lurker :P
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Mike » Tue 17 Jan 2017 18:10



I guess Piet is too modest to post the video he's featured in. :lol:
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Xeno426 » Thu 19 Jan 2017 17:53

Regarding aerial searches, didn't the advent of radar on USN aircraft improve their ability to find enemy ships, or were all the radar sets strictly for airborne interception?

Killertomato wrote:The Chieftain just posted about this on facebook... Piett is e-Famous!

Link?

Mike wrote:I guess he's also a forum lurker :P

Well, he was invoked a lot in the various British debates about the Chieftain tank and the multi-part ammunition system.
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Re: Blinded by the Rising Sun? American Intelligence Assessments of Japanese Air and Naval Power, 1920-1941

Postby Admiral Piett » Fri 25 Aug 2017 18:09

Part 1 of an article I wrote for 'From Balloons to Drones' is now posted. It doesn't contain anything that isn't already here, but it is more refined and revised.

https://balloonstodrones.com/2017/08/24 ... the-1920s/

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