#Brexit vote coming soon.

delfo
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby delfo » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:10

DrRansom wrote:
delfo wrote:The Eurozone works unanimously usually. Hence I corrected you.

That would lead to the same being relevant to Germany or Slovakia or England being capable to delay previous bailout proposals or require them to include extra guarantees. That more or less should answer all your points.

On the exports thing:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures ... cationFile

9% is it ?


I think you misunderstand my point. My point is that European Solidarity isn't. The EU is still not a unified entity working for the best interests of everyone. National interests are still more important than European interests.

If the EU was a real thing, which people really believed in, then Germany would consider Greek debt relief as the same as social spending in East Germany, or a infrastructure project in Hamburg. But the Germans don't. Until we see real fiscal transfers from wealthy EU states to poor EU states, the European Union has no right to call itself a Union. Inter-state solidarity has not yet been really tested. Greek debt relief is the test of whether the EU is really unified. So far, the answer is decisively no.

What does this mean for Brexit? Britain was right to leave the EU. The EU doesn't care for it's members, the EU is a bunch of states watching out for themselves.


Again let me explain the position on Greece. Imagine if from the 80s to 2010 Greece received consistently 1 to 5% of its GDP in direct aid from the EU. And during that time Greece ran schemes regarding road building, regarding agriculture ( plastic trees planted to be shot from the air and presented as proof to receive the subsidies ) and maintained an overbloated economy by public spending and providing things like 14 salaries to the public sector and 14 pensions.

In 2010 a University professor in Greece upon retirement would receive a lump sum( 25 000 for one working in Thessaloniki's Agricultural University ) and then 14 pensions each of which which would be higher in percentage compensation ( and possibly higher net value in Euro ) than each of the pension of his German counterpart.

Tax reforms would be avoided and collections would not be on par with the ones in Bulgaria. For example in my country each POS terminal is linked via a SIM card to the tax authorities to improve collections. In Greece the people are asked to retain their tax receits and present them ( sometimes and this is a new idea from 5 years ago ). An invoice was a rare sight once you left the main streets.

And on top of that the Greeks were saying how dare you expect us to live on 14 pensions of 600 euros a year. ( the minimal pension in Greece ) Which I have to inform you wasn't offensive just to Germany. It was offensive to everyone because next to no one was getting that.

Hence the current reluctance is not because Greece is not viewed as a social project. It's the biggest social project in the history of the EU. But becasue the fear is that the old practices would return which would once more lead to bloating up state administration and state companies with voters with high salaries who contribute not that much in the grand scheme of things. The idea is for Greece to get it's spending practices in line with the rest of Europe and not to have another 20 years of populist driven politicians who literally ( and I do mean almost literally ) get elected by saying they will add another 100000 jobs in the Public administration and then do it.
Last edited by delfo on Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:11

delfo wrote:snip

BREXIT is an emotive subject for a lot of people myself included which is hardly conducive to being good natured towards people who are attempting to get a rise out of you.

As i said i regret responding to you in kind, I'll go 1 step further and apologize for that.

There's an interesting article which predicted BREXIT some 25 years ago for those people who can't understand why Britain is not sold on Europe and the strings which are attached to it this might explain why we don't see things in the same way as the rest of the continent does. Given the lack of clarity surrounding the pro's and cons of EU membership it provides an interesting take on why what works on the continent isn't acceptable here.
http://www.newsredial.com/2016/06/diffe ... in-europe/
I hope your buratino's die screaming.

delfo
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby delfo » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:15

captaincarnage wrote:
delfo wrote:snip

BREXIT is an emotive subject for a lot of people myself included which is hardly conducive to being good natured towards people who are attempting to get a rise out of you.

As i said i regret responding to you in kind, I'll go 1 step further and apologize for that.


It's ok, water under the bridge.

DrRansom
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby DrRansom » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:22

delfo wrote:
Griping about Greek Laws



That wasn't what was in the article, was it? The problem isn't Greek laws, those have already been changed by northern European force. No, the problem is that German doesn't want to allow debt relief because that would make German voters upset. This is even after the Greek economy has shrunk by 25% over the last 8 years.

Also, if the EU is what matters, why didn't President Obama call Junker? President Obama is a busy man, surely he'd focus on reaching out to the most important people and not wasting time on formality.

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REDDQ
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby REDDQ » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:50

DrRansom wrote:I think you misunderstand my point. My point is that European Solidarity isn't. The EU is still not a unified entity working for the best interests of everyone. National interests are still more important than European interests.

If the EU was a real thing, which people really believed in, then Germany would consider Greek debt relief as the same as social spending in East Germany, or a infrastructure project in Hamburg. But the Germans don't. Until we see real fiscal transfers from wealthy EU states to poor EU states, the European Union has no right to call itself a Union. Inter-state solidarity has not yet been really tested. Greek debt relief is the test of whether the EU is really unified. So far, the answer is decisively no.

What does this mean for Brexit? Britain was right to leave the EU. The EU doesn't care for it's members, the EU is a bunch of states watching out for themselves.

Wasn't UK against further federalisation?

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby D-M » Sat 25 Jun 2016 21:56

trigger Article 50.


And spread the same shit over a few more months ? I think the brit had enough shit-tasting for a few years.
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delfo
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby delfo » Sat 25 Jun 2016 22:15

DrRansom wrote:
delfo wrote:
Griping about Greek Laws



That wasn't what was in the article, was it? The problem isn't Greek laws, those have already been changed by northern European force. No, the problem is that German doesn't want to allow debt relief because that would make German voters upset. This is even after the Greek economy has shrunk by 25% over the last 8 years.

Also, if the EU is what matters, why didn't President Obama call Junker? President Obama is a busy man, surely he'd focus on reaching out to the most important people and not wasting time on formality.


I started with how Greece was the biggest social project in the history of the EU. Why are you moving to the laws? Do you think I was talking about laws ? Imagine if you work X amount of hours in Greece in the private sector but a party functionary who works X-2 gets the same amount as you but two times more per year because he helped someone get elected. That was Greece for 20 years. The largest least efficient public administration designed to keep people elected.

Imagine if you have given 300 billion to a country over 30 years and they you know Lost it. Which German province got 300 billion over 30 years from the 80s to 2010 on top of its budget for free? These aren't loans here. This is the developmental aid.

The problem is simple. The reforms started in earnest 2 years ago in Greece. They are not getting debt relief for doging refors for 30+ years and having a good record for 2.

Why has the Greek economy shrunk 25 % for the last 6 years? Have you considered that it was becuase the money was coming from the Greek government borrowing more than it can pay and then handing it out to people in the public administration ? PASOK did it. What do you want to elect me. 100 000 more jobs to do nothing and get paid. Deal. That was one of the elections.

Then that spending money goes away and the economy shrinks, yes cause and effect. When the money you borrowed to throw on people who didn't produce is no longer available spending dies.

This was so insulting to me for Greeks to say you can't live on 700 euro ( this is 13 times a year ) when I know they pay 500 to illegal immigrants who work their shitty jobs. And next door Bulgarians get 110 euro. And our prices aren't 7 times lower. So no it's not Griping at Greek laws.

Btw the ESM loans are better than what most well off countries could get on interest. They don't cover inflation...

PS Do you know why I keep bringing the 700 euro pension? Because that is why they held their big OXI referendum. And not the lowest pensions would be cut. The highest ones and the 14 pension per year thing was to become 13 and 12.

PPS How many laws did the Syriza parliament voted on ? Well the referendum vote they held was their second vote. Had they been doing anything sure but no. Their reform bills forced on them where the third major voting session for them... 1 year in power.

PPPS Had they not had their referendum for that dumb provision to cut spending by 200 million euro they would have grown last year by over 2 percent and 4-5 this year. Instead they had capital controls and collapse so hard that they shrunk ... by 1.2 % percent( actually 0,2 ).

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/ ... ece_en.htm

PPPPS This means that the economy was recovering ... Look in the link if you don't believe me, the debt was shrinking and the unemployement was droping would have been 2.2-3 percent in 2015 if it wasn't for Syriza...

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/figures/2007 ... dex_en.cfm

Check here:

Yearly contributions to Greece after 2007. Greece is listed unde EL. Lowest spending of the EU on Greece is 5.4 billion Euro on Greek development. Highest Greek contribution to the EU is 3.1. Each year Greece received between 3 and 5 billion euro from the EU development programs for Free.

In 2014 Greek contributed to the EU 286 million euro. It got 7.1 billion earmarked for it in development programs from the EU.

Poor Greece not being treated as a Social project in Germany... Is 3 percent of the country's gdp being handed over to Greece by the EU on a silver platter in 2014 not enough ? On top of loans with the highest interest on them being 2.9% ? And Germans are still mighty pissed about it and Merkel has support issues over it.
Last edited by delfo on Sun 26 Jun 2016 01:03, edited 1 time in total.

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varis
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby varis » Sun 26 Jun 2016 01:00

delfo wrote:
captaincarnage wrote:
delfo wrote:snip

BREXIT is an emotive subject for a lot of people myself included which is hardly conducive to being good natured towards people who are attempting to get a rise out of you.

As i said i regret responding to you in kind, I'll go 1 step further and apologize for that.


It's ok, water under the bridge.


Good stuff - there's plenty of beef with the actual subject matter so let's keep it on topic.
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DrRansom
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby DrRansom » Sun 26 Jun 2016 01:48

delfo - how do you propose Germany and Greece share the same currency without permanent fiscal transfers to Greece? You can whine all you want about what Greece did in the past, the fact is that as a member of a single currency union, Germany has to either permanently transfer money to Greece or leave Greece in a state of permanent depression. You prefer the latter, even though that is condemning the entire southern half of Europe to permanent economic trouble.

The EU has to treat Greece and Germany like the US treats New York State and Louisiana. Federal funds from New York are sent to Louisiana to compensate for Louisiana's inability to compete with New York while using the same currency. This is exactly the same problem for the Euro.

So I ask again, is Germany willing to surrender control of it's budget to the EU? If not, then the EU cannot work and will fail.

REDDQ - Europe has to move closer to preserve the Eurozone. Thus, a UK vote is the democratically correct answer because the EU has to become more powerful if it is to survive.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby delfo » Sun 26 Jun 2016 02:11

DrRansom wrote:delfo - how do you propose Germany and Greece share the same currency without permanent fiscal transfers to Greece? You can whine all you want about what Greece did in the past, the fact is that as a member of a single currency union, Germany has to either permanently transfer money to Greece or leave Greece in a state of permanent depression. You prefer the latter, even though that is condemning the entire southern half of Europe to permanent economic trouble.

The EU has to treat Greece and Germany like the US treats New York State and Louisiana. Federal funds from New York are sent to Louisiana to compensate for Louisiana's inability to compete with New York while using the same currency. This is exactly the same problem for the Euro.

So I ask again, is Germany willing to surrender control of it's budget to the EU? If not, then the EU cannot work and will fail.

REDDQ - Europe has to move closer to preserve the Eurozone. Thus, a UK vote is the democratically correct answer because the EU has to become more powerful if it is to survive.


Permanent transfers?

A Greek pensioner used to get more than a German one for working a lot less becuase his government paid him to vote for them to stay in power so they could borrow money they couldn't pay back by floating around the excuse to their creditors that the EU will foot the bill. And you're saying that ?

And now the rest of the union most of whom have already contributed to the ESM which has given 1 to 3 percent loans which are below the inflation rate and will not make money back as well as 3% of it's gdp in free money each year and you are asking why isn't there more free money to show real compassion?

It's a union. Not a charity case. The Greeks who spent that money have more property than Europeans do. The Greek farmers are returning thousands of Euros of misappropriated funds. The Greek banks have a bigger credit line from the ECB than AIG did.

And this is a Union. Not a country. The US controls Lousiana's Spending. For 40 years Greece's spending had no oversight from the EU. But they charged loans telling creditors the EU would foot the bill. This is exactly the problem I have with people confusing the EU for the US and thinking the same rules apply.

Money transfers? The EU budget is 143 billion Euro. The Greek Budget is around 100 Billion Euro. What is the federal budget compared to the state budget? How is collected?

The EU has to treat Greece and Germany like the US treats New York State and Louisiana. Federal funds from New York are sent to Louisiana to compensate for Louisiana's inability to compete with New York while using the same currency. This is exactly the same problem for the Euro.


Please explain how you got to the nonsense that you thought the EU collects all taxes from the member states and then brings them back. Inability to compete with NY while using the same currency ? Do you think this is the problem of Greece ? Inability to compete with Germany while using the same currency? Not that half of the Greek workforce was working in the public sector at one point? The only place in the US where that is remotely possible is GUAM. Do you think it would be justified if you were paid 40000 dollars a year for teaching in NY and in Louisiana they were paid 60000 but taught five less kids and taught 2 less months?

Are you not getting the idea that a metro driver in Greece was making 90000 dollars a year? Does that sound fair to you ? Do you think the NY underground workers get 90000 ? Do you think they are that less productive than the Greek ones? The NY ones earn on average 65 000 dollars per year. But the Greek ones also have free healthcare. And earlier retirement with 60% of their income guaranteed and a lump sum upon retirement. Does that sound fair to you ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/21/busin ... .html?_r=0

Here read anbout the figures.

Some have argued that Hellenic Railways should shut down the majority of its routes, especially in the mountainous Peloponnese region where trains manned by drivers being paid as much as $130,000 a year frequently run empty.


Does that sound like a thing to do with Competitiveness?

Compare to what the US pays today

http://www1.salary.com/Locomotive-Engin ... aries.html

And then adjust for inflation by 5 years.

Don't talk to me about it being like the US or there should be money transfers it's only natural... It has nothing to do with a single currency it has everything to do with a country's series of governments not following the guidelines on debt and kicking the can down the road hoping the EU will pay their bill. It's not about the budget being surrendered it's about there being guidelines and Greece saying on the one hand yes yes we're totally not borrowing more than what was agreed and on the other hand borrowing a shit load more.

I have lived in Greece for 4 years seen the elections, can read a bit of it, I have tons of friends from there, have read and have talked about the salaries, I have had friends start firms who tell me how hard it was to compete with the government jobs for labour, I have queued for days while public servants drink frape and chat and avoid work and you come here to tell me that a decade of experience is and looking at the problem does not have the answer. It's simply that Germany doesn't give more money to Greece, no strings attached. And you ignore all the things I say about rampant spending. Tell me if the governor of Louisiana promises to hire in the government everyone who votes for him wouldn't the rest of the US want his head on a pike ? In your case the solution is to send them the money so people won't starve. Because that was the reality in Greece.

PS On some things that I didn't bother looking up cause there was already a thread for this I am off by 10-15% but it's overall the same, you can't be told repeatedly that it was about Greece paying more than the people added to the economy and bloating up its public spending for no reason and the only answer to keep being but Germany should send more money because competitiveness, it's not a competition who has the lousiest government aparatus...

And the state apartus in Greece didn't include the hundred of thousands working in state companies... Like for example all the ports , ferries, electricity companies and so on. In case you google the number of state employees and you wonder why it's only 24 % of the labour force. It's not.

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