#Brexit vote coming soon.

Object199
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Object199 » Wed 3 May 2017 22:51

Frencho wrote:*snip*

Depends on who you ask and which criterion you chose, China may finally managed to become the biggest market, on the other hand China and sustainable numbers, also the whole fuss being as foreign*er there. But I doubt anyone argues that China will become no.1 sometime. So humble as I am, I went for the 2. :mrgreen:


captaincarnage wrote:The biggest losses for the EU are likely to be on the front of security co-operation and Europol, Britain is one of the largest if not the largest contributor to it with something like 40% of its cases having some British involvement, no deal on that results in our information being permanently removed from its databases. UK intelligence services have generally been more effective than say those of France or Belgium in preventing truly devastating terror attacks, obviously no security is perfect and bad things still happen :(

Yep, it is really a huge loss for the EU.

captaincarnage wrote:You are correct in saying that the loss of the British Economy wouldn't hurt the EU fiscally as much as it would hurt the UK, the loss politically would be far worse, with squabbles over money, projects being cancelled etc taking centre stage. Then there is the direct job losses for industries which rely on access to the British market and territory for example fisheries, on a spreadsheet the numbers look small, when you remember it actually involves real people with votes (not that i think the EU gives a shit about about democracy, that's always been just an irritating inconvenience to those who run it) but the people elected to run its member states sure as hell do. The financial services sector derives about 20% of its revenue from the EU last time i checked so that's actually not such a big deal when compared with manufacturing and supply chains. You end up with faintly ridiculous things like airbuses not having wings as they're manufactured in the UK.

Wait what, there will *be more squabble and blocked projects in the EU when the stubborn and always defiant brat, that never really wanted to be there anyway, called the UK is gone? Is it just my lacking language skills or I am missing something here?

It is not about where the registered office sits, that pays London the salary, but the licenses mate. There is a reason why the financial sector lobbied that massively for the EU.


captaincarnage wrote:Ultimately if negotiations break down no one wins and no one can actually predict what the final outcome will be but it certainly wont be pretty and no one involved gets to walk away with their reputation in tact and the world will be a more dangerous and unstable place as a result.

About the only thing that anyone can say for sure is the events of last week have only strengthened the resolve of those who voted to leave and meant it, so thanks whoever leaked the bullshit about last Friday's dinner you've just handed the conservatives a substantial majority in the upcoming election.


No one wins, it is merely damage control. I will ignore the whole "muh evil EU, literally the 4th Reich" populism, as I already said, I cant wait for the EU "punishing" the poor UK by not giving member rights for free.

Still it seems to me you guys dont grasp who has more pull. The 19th century is long over and the Empire UK is not nearly as relevant as you guys like to think. The next few decades wont be nice either. Even the most stubborn conservative hardliner should have realized it by now, you can either team up with your European mates (who suffer from the same symptoms) or evaporate in tears and self-pity. Thinking that your small declining economy stands any chance competing against the single biggest free trade market is laughable at best.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Thu 4 May 2017 00:38

Object199 wrote:
Wait what, there will *be more squabble and blocked projects in the EU when the stubborn and always defiant brat, that never really wanted to be there anyway, called the UK is gone? Is it just my lacking language skills or I am missing something here?

Yes, no deal = no money from the UK = bomb under the budget for the immediate future, or did you miss the 100 billion figure which magically appeared from EU sources regarding the so called divorce bill.

Also do you think there is going to be a long list of volunteers to fork out more money to the EU for membership once those beastly Brits have left you to your own devices, presumably having been taken to the dry cleaners first?

No one wins, it is merely damage control. I will ignore the whole "muh evil EU, literally the 4th Reich" populism, as I already said, I cant wait for the EU "punishing" the poor UK by not giving member rights for free.

I didn't mention the fourth reich, you did, but i can see i've touched a raw nerve, so i'll pass on commenting.

As for what has been asked for its a free trade deal, like many other 3rd countries have, not membership of the single market or the customs union, try getting your facts right before spouting incorrect information which is literally available in the letter that was sent to the EU invoking article 50.


Still it seems to me you guys dont grasp who has more pull. The 19th century is long over and the Empire UK is not nearly as relevant as you guys like to think. The next few decades wont be nice either. Even the most stubborn conservative hardliner should have realized it by now, you can either team up with your European mates (who suffer from the same symptoms) or evaporate in tears and self-pity. Thinking that your small declining economy stands any chance competing against the single biggest free trade market is laughable at best.

No most who voted out are just fed up and want out, if that means i'm worse off, it beats sticking with something which i and plenty of others dislike intensely. Hell even the people i know who voted remain didn't do so out of love for what the EU is becoming, they did so because they didn't fancy getting fucked up the arse by the rest of the EU.

Dunno where you're from but it sounds like we have some cultural differences. So lets spare this thread an acrimonious disagreement on whats great and whats not.

Cheerio.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby FrangibleCover » Thu 4 May 2017 02:01

captaincarnage wrote:Hell even the people i know who voted remain didn't do so out of love for what the EU is becoming

I did.

The great European experiment is kind of working. The level of cooperation within Europe is at an all time high and it is honestly unthinkable that we might see a war between committed EU members. I am by no means going to say that the EU is perfect but I think the UK was doing alright from it and if we want the EU to be different then maybe some honest engagement with it rather than constant whining and threats to leave could have changed it.

I honestly, ideologically and in my heart of hearts, wish for an ever closer union.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Thu 4 May 2017 03:13

FrangibleCover wrote:
I honestly, ideologically and in my heart of hearts, wish for an ever closer union.


The idea of ever closer union sounds wonderful to some, absolutely not for others.

As for the idea that EU is ever going to change for the better if we engaged with it some more, i'm on the hard side of extremely pessimistic on that score, maybe i'm cynical, maybe i'm wrong, i'm just not an idealist.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Pr.shadocko » Thu 4 May 2017 11:22

about Brexit and fight on terrorism:

It won't change anything, this community work on a person to person relation. Working together is just pragmatism. Even at the peak of the cold relation between France and the US with the Irak, this domain was almost untouched.

From a administrative stand point, most of sharing are on a country to country basis and not under the EU.

By the way, both France and UK have said that the Brexit won't change anything to the renew "entente cordiale".
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Thu 4 May 2017 12:34

Pr.shadocko wrote:about Brexit and fight on terrorism:

It won't change anything, this community work on a person to person relation. Working together is just pragmatism. Even at the peak of the cold relation between France and the US with the Irak, this domain was almost untouched.

From a administrative stand point, most of sharing are on a country to country basis and not under the EU.

By the way, both France and UK have said that the Brexit won't change anything to the renew "entente cordiale".


Absolutely correct, however EUROPOL is an EU run agency which is a major issue to be resolved. I can't imagine anyone in the UK would object to continuing payments to fund it but i suspect looking at the way Denmark has been maneuvered into a truly unfavorable spot under less extreme circumstances than an orderly Brexit, Britain may very well be out of the loop or put into a position where continued cooperation is more hassle than its worth.

For context
http://www.euractiv.com/section/politic ... back-door/
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Object199 » Thu 4 May 2017 23:20

captaincarnage wrote:Yes, no deal = no money from the UK = bomb under the budget for the immediate future, or did you miss the 100 billion figure which magically appeared from EU sources regarding the so called divorce bill.

Also do you think there is going to be a long list of volunteers to fork out more money to the EU for membership once those beastly Brits have left you to your own devices, presumably having been taken to the dry cleaners first?

It is not like you guys paid disproportionately much. Ofc people will moan, but the holes will be stuffed, one way or another. No one likes to recalculate his already finished fiscal plans.

captaincarnage wrote:I didn't mention the fourth reich, you did, but i can see i've touched a raw nerve, so i'll pass on commenting.

As for what has been asked for its a free trade deal, like many other 3rd countries have, not membership of the single market or the customs union, try getting your facts right before spouting incorrect information which is literally available in the letter that was sent to the EU invoking article 50.

Norway pays for their deals with the EU and accepts the requirements that come with them. Being part of the EU market means freedom of movement, something you guys dont like, because those evil mexican polish immigrants are stealing yer jobs.

About the 4th Reich thing, you kinda missunderstood me; it is nonsense, just like all the stuff Brexiteers think about the EU. Non democratic, damaging the British economy, evil bureaucrats, ............... Someone who shoots purposely into his own foot, eh, what he believes to know about the intentions behind the indiscretion from last week is kinda meaningless.


captaincarnage wrote:Dunno where you're from but it sounds like we have some cultural differences. So lets spare this thread an acrimonious disagreement on whats great and whats not.

Cheerio.


Yep, huge differences. There will be enough social, economic and political challenges for the European nations to master in the future. I wholeheartedly believe that the the only meaningful future for Europe is a strong Union and not bickering nation states, each trying to go his own way.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Mitchverr » Thu 4 May 2017 23:26

Object199 wrote:Norway pays for their deals with the EU and accepts the requirements that come with them. Being part of the EU market means freedom of movement, something you guys dont like, because those evil mexican polish immigrants are stealing yer jobs.


Or view it as everyone should have an equal chance to come to the UK and should go through the same process of application to work in the UK. As far as "taking the jobs", technically the bank of england has said wage supression and the use of terrible worker contracts is in part due to the influx of EU migrant workers.

So I mean, if the BoE says it, i guess it must be just racist right? :lol:

Also, did Canada have to sign up for free movement of peoples? :lol: But seriously, why is it such a "requirement" to be part of that to be part of the common market? Personally I think its more because they fear losing power over anything else, if everyone could benifit in a mutually helping deal then everyone would pull out the EU and just be members of the common market, which the EU leaders fear happening and thus, they wont let a good deal happen by saying "free movement or nothing" while claiming THEY are the people whom are being respectful.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Fri 5 May 2017 01:47

First of all, thank you for a more civil and considered response. i had originally intended to ignore any response from you but i have changed my mind, i hope you will take my response in the spirit with which it is intended, ie an honest debate without recourse to some of the more childish antics that politicians and administrators of all persuasions tend to revert to 8-)

It is not like you guys paid disproportionately much. Ofc people will moan, but the holes will be stuffed, one way or another. No one likes to recalculate his already finished fiscal plans.


No indeed, leverage works both ways, that said paying too high a price for something which other countries receive for free is only going to end one way and that is neither side will come to an agreement. The situation for the EU is about as precarious as it has ever been, that said no one here feels vindictive enough, yet to walk away without having a sensible and honest discussion about what may be owed and what any future relationship will look like. You however should be under no illusions that we will not pay a blank checque to retain a good trading relationship with Europe. If that is what is going to be so generously on offer then we should all be asking ourselves what on earth we are doing in entrusting the people whose responsibility it is to spend all this money with another penny.

Norway pays for their deals with the EU and accepts the requirements that come with them. Being part of the EU market means freedom of movement, something you guys dont like, because those evil mexican polish immigrants are stealing yer jobs.

About the 4th Reich thing, you kinda missunderstood me; it is nonsense, just like all the stuff Brexiteers think about the EU. Non democratic, damaging the British economy, evil bureaucrats, ............... Someone who shoots purposely into his own foot, eh, what he believes to know about the intentions behind the indiscretion from last week is kinda meaningless.


You actually haven't quite read and understood the message from my last response to you, which is perfectly understandable given that clowns like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage tried to sell the idea that we could have all of our cake and eat it with regards to the single market. Thankfully one is probably going to get relegated back the back benches and the other one has only ever been a an MEP.

Norway's involvement with the EU is that it is the equivalent of a member without a voice, it goes without saying that this is an even worse proposition for the UK than the current arrangements. The EU is in or has completed negotiations with numerous other nations who will not be part of the EEA like Norway, this is what the UK is aiming for, this in crude terms means that tariffs are reduced to zero for both sides but totally friction less trade is no longer a given due to not being part of the customs union.

If you look at the demographics of the people who voted leave, the average age is 56 which is the point at which most normal people are contemplating retirement rather than starting out in the world, it also puts very firmly in living memory a life and economy which predates the EU/EEC with Britain as a member and maybe just maybe makes people hypersensitive about the precious nature of the 'brand' of democracy which we hold dear that their fathers and grandfathers fought and died to preserve. The idea that they're 'takin' our jobs is just a meme at this point and bears no resemblance to what a socially acceptable brand of Euroscepticism actually derives itself from. Its definitely hard to grasp but it is something that is deeply ingrained in this countries DNA. A little walk through history will demonstrate that we as a country have not always followed accepted wisdom of the time and yet still exists pretty much as it does today when the shit hit the fan.

Yep, huge differences. There will be enough social, economic and political challenges for the European nations to master in the future. I wholeheartedly believe that the the only meaningful future for Europe is a strong Union and not bickering nation states, each trying to go his own way.

I don't know how to respond to this but i shall try :)

We don't wish to sever our ties with Europe or Europeans we wish to reframe our relationship outside of the existing parameters, this means that the good and the bad of the EU and its apparatus are dis-guarded and the UK assumes a similar relationship to the European bloc as say Canada, the United States or Timbuktu none of whom pay a penny towards the EU budget, nor so far as I'm aware do they accept unlimted freedom of movement (though that for me at any rate is not a hardcore redline) and none of whom deal with the political baggage that comes from the current arrangements which the UK has, it is the democratically determined feeling that the EU in its current form and for many of us who have an interest in the path it is currently taking does not represent what we feel is best for our countries interests, it has also poisoned a generation of voters who are fed up with the buck being passed over who is responsible for what problems, is it our politicians or the administrators of the largest and consequently a most opaque social experiment the world has ever seen? Who knows there is plenty of evidence to finger both sides, but it is time to hold politicians to account for their decisions and when we are granted both the means and the motive to do so, is it so unreasonable to exercise that right?

We were given the a democratic choice and a quite brilliantly inept and dishonest campaign by both sides of the argument, and then we were threatened and coerced by our own prime minsiter, president Obama and the European Commission to vote in 1 way or face the consequences, they called it wrong because they expected people who are dis-satisfied with the status quo to blink.

That said rather than throwing the collective dummy out of the pram, we have two choices, we can behave as adults and look to salvage a position which is not in the best short term interests of all involved or we can continue the proverbial mexican standoff until we leave to paddle our own canoe, with or without a mutually beneficial relationship where we continue to cooperate on security the environment etc and mutually beneficial trades continue with minimum hassle and political nonsense and chest beating.

You should ask yourself from the perspective of the mystery person who sparked the latest spat (and it is a very short list of suspects) between the UK and the EU, what is the worst that could happen, is it that the UK sinks into oblivion and Fragments with all the consequences that entails for the rest of Europe or is it that the UK finds a way to survive and indeed thrive outside of the current framework and yet continues to be a good and reliable neighbor who shares common ground with many of the principles which the EU members hold dear when the world outside of Europe threatens to blow the door down? When you find the answer to that question you might get an idea of why the EU is not universally viewed through rose tinted spectacles in this country.

I should add a big fucking disclaimer to this text that it has been abbreviated by about 75% before i clicked the submit button, so please excuse any typos or nonsense arriving from having consumed several glasses of quite excellent Aussie Wine :mrgreen:
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Grabbed_by_the_Spets » Fri 5 May 2017 11:12

Mitchverr wrote:Or view it as everyone should have an equal chance to come to the UK and should go through the same process of application to work in the UK. As far as "taking the jobs", technically the bank of england has said wage supression and the use of terrible worker contracts is in part due to the influx of EU migrant workers.


I wish people would stop blaming immigrants when it comes to shitty people abusing the job market.
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