#Brexit vote coming soon.

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Crotou
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Crotou » Wed 3 May 2017 20:34

Vulcan 607 wrote:Down side is threatening the UK to much and we will walk with no deal. That's something the EU can't afford the UK armed forces and economy is far too important to risk with a tantrum, telling the UK it can't make brexit work even if it is cooperative is a good way to achieve this.

I think no deal is riskier for the UK than for the EU.
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Object199
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Object199 » Wed 3 May 2017 20:59

Vulcan 607 wrote:Down side is threatening the UK to much and we will walk with no deal. That's something the EU can't afford the UK armed forces and economy is far too important to risk with a tantrum, telling the UK it can't make brexit work even if it is cooperative is a good way to achieve this.


You overestimate the importance of the Uk economy for the EU, while it is clearly a loss the EU can afford it. IIRC Germany will have to shoulder the biggest loss, but even for the bloody krauts it wont be too dramatic. On the other side the UK loses access to the 2nd biggest market in the world and also it´s most important trade partner (~48% of all exports in 2014, not talking about the importance of the EU for the financial sector and etc).

About the military, I dont think anyone cares too much about that (the loss of British intelligence will hurt far far more) certainly not as long as the EU doesnt act as single entity and the NATO is still the main actor when it comes to stuff like that. Also I dont see a single united EU army happen in the next 2 decades; due to the usual quarrel, the EU not being ready for that and the Americans still lobbying against it. Saying that, I would love to know if this is also a thing Trump thinks different about than Washington.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Frencho » Wed 3 May 2017 21:48

Object199 wrote:
You overestimate the importance of the Uk economy for the EU, while it is clearly a loss the EU can afford it. IIRC Germany will have to shoulder the biggest loss, but even for the bloody krauts it wont be too dramatic. On the other side the UK loses access to the 2nd biggest market in the world 1st biggest market in the world and also it´s most important trade partner (~48% of all exports in 2014, not talking about the importance of the EU for the financial sector and etc).

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Wed 3 May 2017 21:55

The biggest losses for the EU are likely to be on the front of security co-operation and Europol, Britain is one of the largest if not the largest contributor to it with something like 40% of its cases having some British involvement, no deal on that results in our information being permanently removed from its databases. UK intelligence services have generally been more effective than say those of France or Belgium in preventing truly devastating terror attacks, obviously no security is perfect and bad things still happen :(

You are correct in saying that the loss of the British Economy wouldn't hurt the EU fiscally as much as it would hurt the UK, the loss politically would be far worse, with squabbles over money, projects being cancelled etc taking centre stage. Then there is the direct job losses for industries which rely on access to the British market and territory for example fisheries, on a spreadsheet the numbers look small, when you remember it actually involves real people with votes (not that i think the EU gives a shit about about democracy, that's always been just an irritating inconvenience to those who run it) but the people elected to run its member states sure as hell do. The financial services sector derives about 20% of its revenue from the EU last time i checked so that's actually not such a big deal when compared with manufacturing and supply chains. You end up with faintly ridiculous things like airbuses not having wings as they're manufactured in the UK.

Ultimately if negotiations break down no one wins and no one can actually predict what the final outcome will be but it certainly wont be pretty and no one involved gets to walk away with their reputation in tact and the world will be a more dangerous and unstable place as a result.

About the only thing that anyone can say for sure is the events of last week have only strengthened the resolve of those who voted to leave and meant it, so thanks whoever leaked the bullshit about last Friday's dinner you've just handed the conservatives a substantial majority in the upcoming election.
Last edited by captaincarnage on Wed 3 May 2017 21:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Vulcan 607 » Wed 3 May 2017 21:55

Crotou wrote:
Vulcan 607 wrote:Down side is threatening the UK to much and we will walk with no deal. That's something the EU can't afford the UK armed forces and economy is far too important to risk with a tantrum, telling the UK it can't make brexit work even if it is cooperative is a good way to achieve this.

I think no deal is riskier for the UK than for the EU.


Well the make up ran do amount of money and see if the UK pays is making that seem unlikely. What are we on now 100 billion euros? It isn't going to happen its like the UK doing a trump and asking for all the cash its spent defending Europe since ww2 back (what if we add ww2 ;) ). It is totally childish and just increases support for the Hard brexit and no deal groups.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Wed 3 May 2017 22:00

Vulcan 607 wrote:
Crotou wrote:
Vulcan 607 wrote:Down side is threatening the UK to much and we will walk with no deal. That's something the EU can't afford the UK armed forces and economy is far too important to risk with a tantrum, telling the UK it can't make brexit work even if it is cooperative is a good way to achieve this.

I think no deal is riskier for the UK than for the EU.


Well the make up ran do amount of money and see if the UK pays is making that seem unlikely. What are we on now 100 billion euros? It isn't going to happen its like the UK doing a trump and asking for all the cash its spent defending Europe since ww2 back (what if we add ww2 ;) ). It is totally childish and just increases support for the Hard brexit and no deal groups.

If you really want to lower yourself to Junkers level you'd better throw in WW1 as well :lol:

That guy is stall salty that Cameron tried to block his accession to president of stuff and things.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Vulcan 607 » Wed 3 May 2017 22:06

Object199 wrote:
Vulcan 607 wrote:Down side is threatening the UK to much and we will walk with no deal. That's something the EU can't afford the UK armed forces and economy is far too important to risk with a tantrum, telling the UK it can't make brexit work even if it is cooperative is a good way to achieve this.


You overestimate the importance of the Uk economy for the EU, while it is clearly a loss the EU can afford it. IIRC Germany will have to shoulder the biggest loss, but even for the bloody krauts it wont be too dramatic. On the other side the UK loses access to the 2nd biggest market in the world and also it´s most important trade partner (~48% of all exports in 2014, not talking about the importance of the EU for the financial sector and etc).

About the military, I dont think anyone cares too much about that (the loss of British intelligence will hurt far far more) certainly not as long as the EU doesnt act as single entity and the NATO is still the main actor when it comes to stuff like that. Also I dont see a single united EU army happen in the next 2 decades; due to the usual quarrel, the EU not being ready for that and the Americans still lobbying against it. Saying that, I would love to know if this is also a thing Trump thinks different about than Washington.


Intelligence and military go hand in hand hence MI5, MI6 Military Intelligence.
As for no one being bothered about defence because of NATO, the UK is the number 2 NATO member hurting the UK isn't smart especially with a trump in the white house (its a case of do I feel lucky). I also don't think eastern European EU members will trust their safety to Germany and France which may have Le Penn in charge soon.
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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Frencho » Wed 3 May 2017 22:07

Bit myopic here me CaptainCarnage chap.

There where no successful terror attacks in Metropolitan France from 1997 to 2011, while the UK suffered Al Qaida bombings in London. Dig a few articles from that period and you'll see how both the French anti and counter terrorism model was praised back then.

Then Sarkozy/Fillon threw a wrench into the fine tuned French security model, that's how the lonewolf jihadi loonies slipped through and ISIS attacks became plausible.

Funny I remember when the boss of RAID gave a conference at my university boasting how good the French counter-terrorism system was, then boom, Mohammed Merah siege a few days later, a bit awkward hehe.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby Vulcan 607 » Wed 3 May 2017 22:11

Frencho wrote:Bit myopic here me CaptainCarnage chap.

There where no successful terror attacks in Metropolitan France from 1997 to 2011, while the UK suffered Al Qaida bombings in London. Dig a few articles from that period and you'll see how the French model was praised back then.

Then Sarkozy/Fillon threw a wrench into the fine tuned French security model, that's how the lonewolf jihadi loonies slipped through and ISIS attacks became plausible.

Funny I remember when the boss of RAID gave a conference at my university boasting how good the French counter-terrorism system was, then boom, Mohammed Merah siege a few days later, a bit awkward hehe.


Open borders do tend to make security a bit difficult one of the main concerns and certainly a reason for brexit.

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Re: #Brexit vote coming soon.

Postby captaincarnage » Wed 3 May 2017 22:14

Frencho wrote:Bit myopic here me CaptainCarnage chap.

There where no successful terror attacks in Metropolitan France from 1997 to 2011, while the UK suffered Al Qaida bombings in London. Dig a few articles from that period and you'll see how the french model was praised back then.

Then Sarkozy/Fillon threw a wrench into the fine tuned French security model, that's how the lonewolf jihadi loonies slipped through and ISIS attacks became plausible.

Funny I remember when the boss of RAID gave a conference at my university boasting how good the French system was, then boom, Mohammed Merah siege a few days later, a bit awkward hehe.


I wonder how many there would have been had there not been close co-operation between our two nations me old china.
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