East, Southeast and South Asia News

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Admiral Piett
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Admiral Piett » Mon 12 Sep 2016 22:17

They don't have the capability to mount them on missiles yet. The RoK is saying they will never let the North Korean nuclear program advance to the point where they can actually launch anything at anyone. Once the NorKs have the real capability to launch on demand from mobile platforms, it will be too late for a preemptive strike. The RoK appears to have basically put down a "red line" that, if crossed, would initiate a regime-destroying invasion. Something the KPA couldn't dream of stopping since it is a steaming pile of shit after being in qualitative free-fall since the mid-1980s. What the "red line" is exactly is only known to the top decision makers and brass based on their best available intelligence. Who knows. Perhaps NIS intel is fucked and the NorKs already have the capability, as they claim. Regardless, the media coverage completely missed the gravity of the South Korean statement. This indicates a complete policy shift from a reactionary, defensive stance to an aggressive, proactive one. That is IF the South Korean right remains in power after the election.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby DrRansom » Mon 12 Sep 2016 22:28

Admiral Piett wrote:They don't have the capability to mount them on missiles yet. The RoK is saying they will never let the North Korean nuclear program advance to the point where they can actually launch anything at anyone. Once the NorKs have the real capability to launch on demand from mobile platforms, it will be too late for a preemptive strike. The RoK appears to have basically put down a "red line" that, if crossed, would initiate a regime-destroying invasion. Something the KPA couldn't dream of stopping since it is a steaming pile of shit after being in qualitative free-fall since the mid-1980s. What the "red line" is exactly is only known to the top decision makers and brass based on their best available intelligence. Who knows. Perhaps NIS intel is fucked and the NorKs already have the capability, as they claim. Regardless, the media coverage completely missed the gravity of the South Korean statement. This indicates a complete policy shift from a reactionary, defensive stance to an aggressive, proactive one. That is IF the South Korean right remains in power after the election.


So, RoK has signaled that they will invade before DPRK develops a nuclear tipped missile?

The arms control analyst Jeffrey Lewis believes that DPRK already has a weapon for missile delivery. If that's true, it is too late for RoK.

Is it correct to assume that the threat against Pyongyang is for domestic consumption?

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Admiral Piett » Mon 12 Sep 2016 22:38

DrRansom wrote:So, RoK has signaled that they will invade before DPRK develops a nuclear tipped missile?

The arms control analyst Jeffrey Lewis believes that DPRK already has a weapon for missile delivery. If that's true, it is too late for RoK.

Is it correct to assume that the threat against Pyongyang is for domestic consumption?


Their public statements, paired with all I have read, yes. The current South Korean government seems to be viewing this issue as a matter of national survival. I have read that some think the North Koreans have the capability as well. As I mention, maybe NIS/American intelligence knows something we in the open source world don't, or perhaps their intelligence is off. Hopefully it is the former option. The wording of the threat is definitely tailored for domestic and North Korean decision makers' consumption, hence the silly sounding "reduce Pyongyang to ashes" deal that reminds me more of KCNA than Yonhap. Particularly the claimed formation of a South Korean Chubby the Third assassination squad seems specifically there to try and scare the DPRK leadership.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby another505 » Mon 12 Sep 2016 23:47

So... if NK continues, I can expect SK invades NK within a year or two

i wonder what china will do if such invasion occur. Would a backstab to NK occur? Take as much territory they can before SK fully occupy it , to set up a buffer zone from themselves in case of an united korea that has USA bases on it?
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Xeno426 » Tue 13 Sep 2016 00:02

another505 wrote:i wonder what china will do if such invasion occur. Would a backstab to NK occur? Take as much territory they can before SK fully occupy it , to set up a buffer zone from themselves in case of an united korea that has USA bases on it?

Or try to take Pyongyang first and establish either a puppet state or at least a government far more stable to China's interests. Again, a buffer state.
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby another505 » Tue 13 Sep 2016 00:10

Xeno426 wrote:
another505 wrote:i wonder what china will do if such invasion occur. Would a backstab to NK occur? Take as much territory they can before SK fully occupy it , to set up a buffer zone from themselves in case of an united korea that has USA bases on it?

Or try to take Pyongyang first and establish either a puppet state or at least a government far more stable to China's interests. Again, a buffer state.

yea, but china invading first..... seems far fetch.
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Admiral Piett » Tue 13 Sep 2016 00:16

To my knowledge, the current policy of the CCP in case of a Second Korean War would be to secure North Korean NBC weapons last I heard. So not so much actively help in the invasion itself so much as make sure no WMDs manage to slip away. I'm not totally current however, so maybe that policy has changed.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby DrRansom » Tue 13 Sep 2016 00:36

Admiral Piett wrote:Their public statements, paired with all I have read, yes. The current South Korean government seems to be viewing this issue as a matter of national survival. I have read that some think the North Koreans have the capability as well. As I mention, maybe NIS/American intelligence knows something we in the open source world don't, or perhaps their intelligence is off. Hopefully it is the former option. The wording of the threat is definitely tailored for domestic and North Korean decision makers' consumption, hence the silly sounding "reduce Pyongyang to ashes" deal that reminds me more of KCNA than Yonhap. Particularly the claimed formation of a South Korean Chubby the Third assassination squad seems specifically there to try and scare the DPRK leadership.


This is getting to be really tight for RoK. North Korea has had enough tests to develop a useful warhead.

Assassination squad sounds good, but if Kim Jong Un conveys a nuclear threat as a response to an assassination attempt, that might be enough to scare off any attempt on his life.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Admiral Piett » Tue 13 Sep 2016 00:55

DrRansom wrote:This is getting to be really tight for RoK. North Korea has had enough tests to develop a useful warhead.


Yes, certainly. The NorKs have to be close. The real question is if the RoK is bluffing, or if they are dead serious. I believe the latter, but an argument could be made for the former. Of course all of this could be null if the South Korean left wins the election, since they are still following the Sunshine 2.0 "lets pay them to blackmail us" train of the thought. In which case we would certainly see a truly nuclear North Korea, since it is very clear Chubby the Third is going to continue pursuing his program if he isn't somehow forced into stopping through sanctions, a war, a coup, a collapse or some combination of those things.

On topic of the progress of the North Korean nuclear program:

http://38north.org/2016/09/shecker091216/

This is a pretty gloom and doom assessment, but it could very well be accurate. I imagine the best case scenario is the NorKs are VERY close to a standardized warhead. Worst case is they have it. I'm really curious what NIS/American intelligence knows that we don't. I imagine the window for a preemptive strike is almost gone.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby LoneRifle » Tue 13 Sep 2016 01:17

If time is running out, I'd expect it to be the #1 priority of the next US administration (because lets be honest, Obama isn't going to make a move).

If the ROK DOES see this as a threat to national survival, I expect the decision to "go hot" would be somewhere from March 2017 (After the US Presidential switch) to end of year 2017 (When the ROK elections occur). Grim indeed.
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