East, Southeast and South Asia News

[Killertomato]

RoK can't reduce Pyongyang to ashes. It lacks the airpower to do so.

That's not the point, the point is



As in I can't remember hearing anything like that from the ROK in 10+ years.

[another505]

To my knowledge, the current policy of the CCP in case of a Second Korean War would be to secure North Korean NBC weapons last I heard. So not so much actively help in the invasion itself so much as make sure no WMDs manage to slip away. I'm not totally current however, so maybe that policy has changed.

Can you check their policy for me? where do you get it?

Though securing NBC, they might as well secure the territories...

[Admiral Piett]

Can you check their policy for me? where do you get it?

Though securing NBC, they might as well secure the territories...

I can't remember where I read that for the life of me unfortunately. It was a couple years back, hence why my explanation in the post was rather tentative. Such a plan seems to be roughly in line with Chinese policy, so I'm inclined to believe it. China wants stability on the Korean peninsula above all else, and if a war must occur then they will make damn sure nothing else bad happens to make the situation even worse. However, I could be completely wrong, so I wouldn't take my statement as gospel. Even if it was true two years ago, it could be totally untrue now. Of course, it could never have been a thing, and I'm mis-remembering or talking out of my ass.

I'll do some looking around to see if I can find where I got that from. Perhaps Keldon could use some of his Chinese language hacks to see if anything is floating around in that regard.

[delfo]

To bring back to the flooding just for a second, AJ has a clip from people working to reinforce roads and rail connections:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/d ... 01118.html

I want you to focus on the people doing the work and the tools they use. It's strinking. The people look like they're on the own after being lent a few vehicles. Look at the ladder used to fix the powerlines for the track. Usually it's a car here or another train with a platform that gets elevated.

[keldon]

I can't remember where I read that for the life of me unfortunately. It was a couple years back, hence why my explanation in the post was rather tentative. Such a plan seems to be roughly in line with Chinese policy, so I'm inclined to believe it. China wants stability on the Korean peninsula above all else, and if a war must occur then they will make damn sure nothing else bad happens to make the situation even worse. However, I could be completely wrong, so I wouldn't take my statement as gospel. Even if it was true two years ago, it could be totally untrue now. Of course, it could never have been a thing, and I'm mis-remembering or talking out of my ass.

I'll do some looking around to see if I can find where I got that from. Perhaps Keldon could use some of his Chinese language hacks to see if anything is floating around in that regard.

You won't find any official statements about a second Korean war. most things floating around are just analysis of various professionalism.

Coming back on the war scenario, i think it is certain in case of an armed conflict which side will win, but the question should revolve around what comes after it (keyword being refugees and how to deal with the NK population) and with how much casualty on SKs side. Personally i don't think the assumption of SK pushs over KPA in a short amount of time with low loss is realistic. Everybody who favors a military solution should really take those issues seriously, with no plan and unprepared it will turn to something quite like Iraq.

Remember if you back someone with nothing to lose into a corner it will end ugly, even if we assume the average NK guy isn't as fanatic like some ISIS zealot.

Like i said for chubby to completly lose his marbles is when he is sure the control of Kim's dynasty (cause its a hereditary monarchy) is fading away, that would be the "nothing to lose" point for him and then it would very likely end in a armed conflict.

In case China and US is activly involved, then the perspective would be a bit different, China would obviously not like US deployment directly at the frontdoor, a stable but divided Korea peninsula is in the national interest (unless SK boots out US completly and proclaim neutrality after a reunification, but thats almost impossible). US would certainly want more presence and push the line further in direction of China, but an SK or US invasion of NK without the blessing of China would be just a repeat of first Korean war. And honestly i think everybody should realize that such a conflict has the potential to end the world, despite how confident the parties participating want you to believe it will end in a swift victory in their favor.

[Admiral Piett]

You won't find any official statements about a second Korean war. most things floating around are just analysis of various professionalism.

Yeah, that must have been the kind of thing I saw. It was so long ago I just can't remember. Oh wells.

Snip. Second Korean War stuff.

Yeah, the ultimate result is essentially a foregone conclusion. It is more an issue of what comes after, and it won't be pretty regardless of whatever way one looks at it. Of course an invasion would need to have the blessing, or at least the begrudging permission, of the Chinese. If it is clear that war is going to happen, I can't see the Chinese spending their blood and gold in defence of an ailing regime that has done little to instill much good will in Beijing. At most I can see the Chinese building up forces in the area and making damn sure their border is sealed tight. China just wants the peninsula to calm the f*ck down so it can go deal with other more pressing concerns. I'm sure Chinese decision makers aren't naive enough to think the Kim dynasty is going to last much longer, but they want a significantly less destabilizing end than a war or uncontrolled collapse. The best possible outcome I can see is a realist-led coup that removes Chubby the Third from power and starts talking about disposing of the nuclear program at the very least, or perhaps even full reform, though I don't know how many reforming moderates (think NorK Deng Xiaopings, Hu Yaobangs, Zhao Ziyangs, etc.) are left in the upper echelons of power.

[keldon]

Yeah, the ultimate result is essentially a foregone conclusion. It is more an issue of what comes after, and it won't be pretty regardless of whatever way one looks at it. Of course an invasion would need to have the blessing, or at least the begrudging permission, of the Chinese. If it is clear that war is going to happen, I can't see the Chinese spending their blood and gold in defence of an ailing regime that has done little to instill much good will in Beijing. At most I can see the Chinese building up forces in the area and making damn sure their border is sealed tight. China just wants the peninsula to calm the f*ck down so it can go deal with other more pressing concerns. I'm sure Chinese decision makers aren't naive enough to think the Kim dynasty is going to last much longer, but they want a significantly less destabilizing end than a war or uncontrolled collapse. The best possible outcome I can see is a realist-led coup that removes Chubby the Third from power and starts talking about disposing of the nuclear program at the very least, or perhaps even full reform, though I don't know how many reforming moderates (think NorK Deng Xiaopings, Hu Yaobangs, Zhao Ziyangs, etc.) are left in the upper echelons of power.

yeah, it is a difficult situation, and like i said there is no fast acting medicine. Regardless what happens, the peninsula would be in turmoil.

[LoneRifle]

I'm dubious on the notion that there will be an internal coup to remove Kim III. Society there is so fundamentally geared towards subservience and survival that I find it hard to believe he can be removed by internal forces taking the initiative. Only way to stop him from his goal is kill him, which won't be pretty if that's the route taken.

[DrRansom]

yeah, it is a difficult situation, and like i said there is no fast acting medicine. Regardless what happens, the peninsula would be in turmoil.

keldon - is there any thought in China about the regional consequences of a nuclear armed North Korea? I mean the development and deployment of conventional strategic capabilities by RoK and US, including:
- Missile Defense (e.g. THAAD)
- Long Range Missile Early Warning (long-range ground-based radar)
- Strategic Reconnaissance (stealth UAVs and high-speed systems)
- Strategic Precision Strike (1000km+ ballistic and post-ballistic missiles)
- Redundant Command and Control and hardened strike capability
- Improved long-range airpower, with emphasis on stealth / electronic warfare to support deep strike against TELs

This investments will come at the expense of the RoK Army. In the past, RoK army is most important to deal with threat of DPRK ground forces. Now that DPRK is on the verge of a nuclear arsenal, RoK strategic strike is the most important capability. This shift changes the military emphasis in the region. I foresee that a nuclear armed North Korea will force South Korea to develop strategic capabilities which will upset any conventional balance within the region, largely to the detriment of China. Are there any long-term thoughts in China about that?

[keldon]

keldon - is there any thought in China about the regional consequences of a nuclear armed North Korea? I mean the development and deployment of conventional strategic capabilities by RoK and US, including:
- Missile Defense (e.g. THAAD)
- Long Range Missile Early Warning (long-range ground-based radar)
- Strategic Reconnaissance (stealth UAVs and high-speed systems)
- Strategic Precision Strike (1000km+ ballistic and post-ballistic missiles)
- Redundant Command and Control and hardened strike capability
- Improved long-range airpower, with emphasis on stealth / electronic warfare to support deep strike against TELs

This investments will come at the expense of the RoK Army. In the past, RoK army is most important to deal with threat of DPRK ground forces. Now that DPRK is on the verge of a nuclear arsenal, RoK strategic strike is the most important capability. This shift changes the military emphasis in the region. I foresee that a nuclear armed North Korea will force South Korea to develop strategic capabilities which will upset any conventional balance within the region, largely to the detriment of China. Are there any long-term thoughts in China about that?

There is no official anwser, and i honestly don't think people should expect a press conference to lay out the details and strategies of China in concern of SK to go nuclear. That is not to say that Chinese media and internet is not flooded with discussions, in fact there are way too much opinions and the quality of those are also varying greatly.

But if we stay at present, only THAAD is being deployed and the Chinese concern is mostly because the longrange sensors are capable to spying far into the mainland, the missile system itself is not that much of an issue. There are a lot of conflicting interests involved, but i think anything about concrete strategy/countermeaseaur/whatever from China will depend on if SK is indeed commiting in arming itself with nukes. Befor those evidence are seen there will be mostly only conplaining and pub talk in the public.