East, Southeast and South Asia News

[DrRansom]

There is no official anwser, and i honestly don't think people should expect a press conference to lay out the details and strategies of China in concern of SK to go nuclear. That is not to say that Chinese media and internet is not flooded with discussions, in fact there are way too much opinions and the quality of those are also varying greatly.

But if we stay at present, only THAAD is being deployed and the Chinese concern is mostly because the longrange sensors are capable to spying far into the mainland, the missile system itself is not that much of an issue. There are a lot of conflicting interests involved, but i think anything about concrete strategy/countermeaseaur/whatever from China will depend on if SK is indeed commiting in arming itself with nukes. Befor those evidence are seen there will be mostly only conplaining and pub talk in the public.

I get that there won't be any official or possibly unofficial statement.

My question wasn't about SK going nuclear, it was about SK developing the conventional capabilities to fight a nuclear armed North Korea. Those conventional capabilities will be much more effective against China than the current Army-focused development. Would that affect China's position towards DPRK nuclear weapons?

[keldon]

I get that there won't be any official or possibly unofficial statement.

My question wasn't about SK going nuclear, it was about SK developing the conventional capabilities to fight a nuclear armed North Korea. Those conventional capabilities will be much more effective against China than the current Army-focused development. Would that affect China's position towards DPRK nuclear weapons?

That is fairly easy to anwser and it would be: No, China won't be sweating bullets if SK becomes a more conventinally powerful military. Since China is basically surrounded by peerpower, and in case of Sk, they already have some impressive kits.

As for the attitude towards NK, it is also pretty difficult, since everyone knows chubby is stirring up problem but like i said if you put too much pressure on him he might snap, the general approach is carrot and stick, but lets say it is not working out that well.

[DrRansom]

That is fairly easy to anwser and it would be: No, China won't be sweating bullets if SK becomes a more conventinally powerful military. Since China is basically surrounded by peerpower, and in case of Sk, they already have some impressive kits.

As for the attitude towards NK, it is also pretty difficult, since everyone knows chubby is stirring up problem but like i said if you put too much pressure on him he might snap, the general approach is carrot and stick, but lets say it is not working out that well.

Yet, China is really upset about THAAD deployment. We have experience that China does not like increased capability in developed / deployed in their close neighbor. Has there been any connection that THAAD is necessitated by DPRK nuclear weapons?

We also have to think that RoK and US will deploy more effective systems in the region, stealth UAVs, hypersonic UAVs, better radars. Does any of that worry China?

[keldon]

Yet, China is really upset about THAAD deployment. We have experience that China does not like increased capability in developed / deployed in their close neighbor. Has there been any connection that THAAD is necessitated by DPRK nuclear weapons?

We also have to think that RoK and US will deploy more effective systems in the region, stealth UAVs, hypersonic UAVs, better radars. Does any of that worry China?

Like i said, its that longrange sensor, which upsates China.

As for those other capabilities you mentioned, it will depend on if it deployed by US for their own use or if the SK does that. I mean, SK announced that they would develop a 5th gen stealth fighter. The K2 is a very capable tank far better than anything chubby can offer. SK has bascially Arleigh Burke class destroyers cruising around. All of that and nobody batted an eye, i mean personally i think the most coming out of China short of president Park riding on a nuclear ICBM in a skimpy bikini is at most only complain.

Edit: I'll add that China is kinda sad about that whole THAAD story, because they worked hard to pull SK into their orbit. With the deployment of THAAD it is like SK proclaims that they won't leave the US orbit. You know all of those geopolitical power struggle.

[LoneRifle]

Why did China even think they could remove the ROK from being in the US orbit anyhow? I find it hard to believe that such a thing is possible considering the role China and the USA played in the past 60 years of greater Korean politics.

[Admiral Piett]

South Korea moving into the Chinese sphere is possible, however framing the discussion to focus on which power's sphere South Korea enters is removing the agency from (South) Koreans themselves. They are an independent, sovereign nation with their own national interests, language, history and culture. The South Koreans will move into the sphere of whichever power best serves their interests at the time. At the moment, and for almost all of the post-WWII period, that power has been the United States. There was a brief period in the early 2000s, before Chubby the Second detonated his nuke and all that other crap that has occurred since then, that China was doing a good job influencing the South Koreans. An increasingly belligerent North Korea, and China's continued support of it, has undone a lot of that influence. As things currently stand, pulling South Korea away from the United States and supporting North Korea are two mutually exclusive propositions. From looking at the recent policy of the Chinese, I think the CCP leadership is slowly starting to understand that. Chubby the Third is walking a really fine line at this point, because once the moment comes when China must choose between the DPRK or the RoK, it won't be much of a choice. I feel like that crossroads is very close if Chubby the Third keeps going down the path he is currently on.

[keldon]

Why did China even think they could remove the ROK from being in the US orbit anyhow? I find it hard to believe that such a thing is possible considering the role China and the USA played in the past 60 years of greater Korean politics.

the socio-economic rise of China had a great deal of impact on SK. China understands it fully and tries to play the card, at the same time SK also understands that China was in the recent past the growth engine for the world, solely focused on economy there will be better opportunities for SK if siding with China. Nations don't have permanent enemies or allies, only interests. In this regard i also understands that US wants to have a strong presence there and would put pressure to anything that would threatens the said interest.

[keldon]

South Korea moving into the Chinese sphere is possible, however framing the discussion to focus on which power's sphere South Korea enters is removing the agency from (South) Koreans themselves. They are an independent, sovereign nation with their own national interests, language, history and culture. The South Koreans will move into the sphere of whichever power best serves their interests at the time. At the moment, and for almost all of the post-WWII period, that power has been the United States. There was a brief period in the early 2000s, before Chubby the Second detonated his nuke and all that other crap that has occurred since then, that China was doing a good job influencing the South Koreans. An increasingly belligerent North Korea, and China's continued support of it, has undone a lot of that influence. As things currently stand, pulling South Korea away from the United States and supporting North Korea are two mutually exclusive propositions. From looking at the recent policy of the Chinese, I think the CCP leadership is slowly starting to understand that. Chubby the Third is walking a really fine line at this point, because once the moment comes when China must choose between the DPRK or the RoK, it won't be much of a choice. I feel like that crossroads is very close if Chubby the Third keeps going down the path he is currently on.

I personally don't think chubby is that dumb. I can imagine his main interest is maintaning his little kingdom and enjoy the DVD collection his father left him. It is unlikely for him to seriously start a shooting war, unless like i said he gets the impression the plebs want to depose the king and thats the point for him to have nothing to lose.

SK obviously wants peace and quite and not worrying that chubby could slip on his way to office and accidentally fall on the red button. And like Xeno mentioned a reunification in what fashion ever will be very costly, i seriously doubting SK would want one if they are get a glimps of the bill, not to mention the NK population they need to care for.

China in this case want some buffer or in best case a neutral (or even friendly) SK without any US presence, if SK is determined to get the other half of the peninsula back it will have a long talk with China, and only the promise that US will kiss their bases in SK goodbye will there be blessing or even help.

And US, well, it is obvious what US would like to have.

[Mike]

Why did China even think they could remove the ROK from being in the US orbit anyhow? I find it hard to believe that such a thing is possible considering the role China and the USA played in the past 60 years of greater Korean politics.

And the whole reason NK even their is because China.

[LoneRifle]

What the US wants we already have. So I don't see how China has a belief that it is a negotiating point. I mean, the ROK is asking the US to put nukes in SK as a deterrent, and considering making their own. That's evidence of a very deep commitment. I seriously doubt South Korea would be as duplicitous as to cut a deal to kick the USA out just to satisfy China, a country which is directly responsible for the fact that there is a maniac on their border. Just doesn't make sense.

You talk about "no permanent enemies" but the truth is until North Korea is removed that belief is false. South Korea won't simply abandon a 60 year alliance so long as the Norks are in the neighborhood. And if worse comes to worse and a war happens, I very much doubt South Korea says "kthanksbye" to the country that was there helping them from the get go. Maybe 20-30 years after a potential reunification, but that might as well be another lifetime. It ain't gonna happen anytime soon.