East, Southeast and South Asia News

delfo
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby delfo » Thu 22 Sep 2016 00:11

Admiral Piett wrote:More on a possible South Korean nuclear program:

http://38north.org/2016/09/bclee091516/

...The US-ROK relationship, which places US strategic interests ahead of South Korea’s fears about the North, has prompted pundits in the South to pose a necessary question: Why should South Korean foreign policy be held hostage by North Korean nukes? One widespread answer has been that South Korea is not allowed to develop its own nuclear weapons. Since the South’s clandestine nuclear weapons program, initiated in the 1970s under Park Chung-hee, was discovered, there has been great pressure from the United States for Seoul to refrain from building a nuclear deterrent. Instead, South Korean leaders have relied on the US pledge of a “nuclear umbrella” that would be able to deter and retaliate to any nuclear attack against the South.

Still, a number of hawkish politicians and experts in South Korea have made no secret of their penchant for nuclear weapons, suggesting that North Korea’s nuclear program makes it feasible and necessary for Seoul to pursue a counterpart effort. In particular, these advocates do not appear to rule out the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons if the US missile defense system, which remains a potential flashpoint between South Korea and China, either becomes unavailable or proves insufficient to provide security for South Korea...

...As North Korea’s nuclear and missile development poses an increasingly dire threat, calls for South Korea to acquire an indigenous nuclear weapons capability are becoming ever more common. Support for a South Korean nuclear weapons program has fluctuated between 52 and 68 percent in domestic polls, and if North Korea’s nuclear arsenal reaches the size of India or Pakistan’s stockpiles, domestic pressures for a ROK nuclear program would be stronger than ever...


It's amazing when you consider that NK can't supply it's army with food if it orders a general mobilization because it has less than 10% of trucks than the German or Soviet forces in the East and no horses and a lot less trains ...

If Lumpy orders a mobilization, by the time he orders a demobilization 1 month later there's no army left. ROK doesn't have to go into North Korea it has to make a Korean BBQ fest at the border.

The only way for his nuclear blufff to work is for the leftern most portions of the opposition in ROK grab power and then turn into the Jill Stein approach towards Lumpy and outright capitulate. Every other option ends with lumpy getting self check mated. But my problem with that scenario is that it only prolongs his reign a few years. He will turn into NK's version of Lukanov. He outlived his usefulness in 6 years and got assasinated in 1996. They will just turn into a criminal hunta with the excess of money and access to ROK goods and the money will go out into the clans that will form.
Last edited by delfo on Thu 22 Sep 2016 08:15, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby delfo » Fri 23 Sep 2016 03:16

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ ... 474556845/

"Do they think they can confront our republic, a nuclear power of the East, with the scrap weapons that the United States tossed them?" the statement read. "Although it is not what we want, if our enemy shows even the most minor sign, a command can be issued immediately to the Hwasong artillery unit regarding a loaded nuclear warhead ... this means our nuclear warheads can turn Seoul into a sea of fire in an instant."


So in short they only have Scuds servicable for a strike and in sufficient numbers and sort of rapidly deployable.


The statement added, "If a 10-kiloton hydrogen bomb is dropped at least 200,000 deaths will be incurred, 500,000 people will be injured and hundreds of thousands will be hit by radiation ... did you ever think about our nuclear warheads hitting Seoul?"


This doesn't make much sense.

But when you add this:

The numbers used in the North Korean statement were directly borrowed from South Korean press reports, according to Newsis.


It makes more sense.

So he's got nothing but a pair of 2s ?
Last edited by delfo on Sat 24 Sep 2016 00:08, edited 1 time in total.

DrRansom
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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby DrRansom » Fri 23 Sep 2016 23:42

SCUDs + nuclear weapons sounds like something serious, not a pair of 2s...

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby delfo » Sat 24 Sep 2016 00:05

DrRansom wrote:SCUDs + nuclear weapons sounds like something serious, not a pair of 2s...


Kim has the infinite ability to dissapoint people who believe he actually has a working warhead he can put in a Scud that can fly over the 3 brigades of Patriot PAC2/3 in South Korea.

Or in numbers ( material for less than 10 ? ) that can change the balance ( 600 missiles with Biological and Chemical weapons ). We're talking Houthi & Saleh level of military capablity here. Deployed not against 3 divisions of Saudi National Guard and 3 brigades of the Saudi army and 1 division of the UAE augmented by local auxiliary but against ROK.

A pair of 2s is the lowest he can get. I can augment it for a single Ace.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby DrRansom » Tue 27 Sep 2016 04:57

Article about the necessity of preparing US and RoK forces for warfare under nuclear attack in Korea:
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/prep ... -in-korea/

I wonder if this will start affecting exercises, not in the offensive sense of a counter-force campaign, but in the reactive sense of recovering from a tactical nuclear attack.

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby delfo » Fri 30 Sep 2016 12:37

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-phili ... ium=Social

Great guy that Duterte. Simply great.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte appeared to liken himself to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler on Friday and said he would "be happy" to exterminate three million drug users and peddlers in the count

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby Vulcan 607 » Fri 30 Sep 2016 13:33

delfo wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-hitler-idUSKCN1200B9?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Great guy that Duterte. Simply great.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte appeared to liken himself to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler on Friday and said he would "be happy" to exterminate three million drug users and peddlers in the count


Would be funny if they found he had drugs and executed him. Wonder if he would see the irony I hope so

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Re: East, Southeast and South Asia News

Postby frostypooky » Fri 30 Sep 2016 13:46

DrRansom wrote:Article about the necessity of preparing US and RoK forces for warfare under nuclear attack in Korea:
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/prep ... -in-korea/

I wonder if this will start affecting exercises, not in the offensive sense of a counter-force campaign, but in the reactive sense of recovering from a tactical nuclear attack.


"skeleton crew" ops have been part of exercises from tactical to wargaming level (and critical battle management nodes are NBC hardened per USAF/USArmy's global requirements), but yes, only in general sense of NBC threat and not NK's specific emerging nuclear threat. the majority of the US operational/strategic focus in exercises is enabling follow-on forces as there is no illusion 2ID and the 2 fighter wings arent going to suffer heavy losses, so you could say there is already that posture to a degree... as far as ROK op/strategic contingincies in regards to losing an entire chunk abruptly somewhere, no clue.

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