中国同志们

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another505
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Mon 31 Jul 2017 04:03

Okay got back to macau Sar, shanghai was so hot that i got a bit sick. Going to rest while watch some pla videos
Anyways i dont see why ppl would prefer sac, what have they produced other than some ripoffed upgraded flankers and somehow possible uglier f35
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Mon 31 Jul 2017 17:06

another505 wrote:Okay got back to macau Sar, shanghai was so hot that i got a bit sick. Going to rest while watch some pla videos
Anyways i dont see why ppl would prefer sac, what have they produced other than some ripoffed upgraded flankers and somehow possible uglier f35


Glad you didn't melt. :D take care of yourself and stay hydrated, summer in asian metropoli are always a major pain in the ass.

SAC was always the primary contractor since the 50s, and the significance of the Su-27 and the domestic variants are a huge boost in morale when all PLAAF could show was the J-7. Of course if you compare what CAC achieved it's almost laughable.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Mon 31 Jul 2017 19:53

another505 wrote:Okay got back to macau Sar, shanghai was so hot that i got a bit sick. Going to rest while watch some pla videos
Anyways i dont see why ppl would prefer sac, what have they produced other than some ripoffed upgraded flankers and somehow possible uglier f35


btw. watching pla vids, there is a decent action movie, maybe wanna check it out?

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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Tue 1 Aug 2017 06:24

keldon wrote:
another505 wrote:Okay got back to macau Sar, shanghai was so hot that i got a bit sick. Going to rest while watch some pla videos
Anyways i dont see why ppl would prefer sac, what have they produced other than some ripoffed upgraded flankers and somehow possible uglier f35


Glad you didn't melt. :D take care of yourself and stay hydrated, summer in asian metropoli are always a major pain in the ass.

SAC was always the primary contractor since the 50s, and the significance of the Su-27 and the domestic variants are a huge boost in morale when all PLAAF could show was the J-7. Of course if you compare what CAC achieved it's almost laughable.

speak about chinese flankers, enlighten me this

we have su27sk which J-11 ripoffed from
and now Su30mkk and J16, what are going to be the different between these two?

Im actually a bit surprise Russia is selling su-35, could imagine we have J-18 or something which is a rip off from it too..

[/quote]


hmm... if i have time, im already back at work lol

also, i was wondering at work, if PLA could make a nuclear battlecruiser that could store DF-21D and use satellites to guide them.
That would be insanely powerful, as it can strike any fleet anywhere with extreme range, and fleets have no where to run except to try to stop the ASBM.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Tue 1 Aug 2017 16:49

another505 wrote:speak about chinese flankers, enlighten me this

we have su27sk which J-11 ripoffed from
and now Su30mkk and J16, what are going to be the different between these two?

Im actually a bit surprise Russia is selling su-35, could imagine we have J-18 or something which is a rip off from it too..




hmm... if i have time, im already back at work lol

also, i was wondering at work, if PLA could make a nuclear battlecruiser that could store DF-21D and use satellites to guide them.
That would be insanely powerful, as it can strike any fleet anywhere with extreme range, and fleets have no where to run except to try to stop the ASBM.


Domestic production, electronics upgrade like radar and avionics also weapon integration to use chinese munitions.

Su-35 is somehow unclear, rumors says it's a failsafe in case J-20 gets delayed or are unsatisfactory, i geuess the vectoring engine could also be a main reason, beside helping out Russia with money.

btw. I highly doubt such ships like nuke battlecruisers would be a thing in immediate future. if you wanna strike fleet with ballistic missles, then better use a sub. Anyway, carrier has priority in a bluewater navy.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby Frencho » Wed 2 Aug 2017 00:04

keldon wrote:
By what you have written yourself just above, China is aware of those failures.

If you think Chinese are in any way less critical compared to "free thinking ideologues" on this side, then you really need to frequent the Chinese news outlet more. But you'll have to do it with google translate or learn Chinese yourself, because the volume of those text will be far too large than what i'm willing to do in my spare time.

btw. i don't think a pure "fact based" media is a thing, "agenda driven" is what i would conclude after 20+ years (and counting) in Germany. As to the issues with "agenda driven" media there is also a fairly good post from sinodefence:

Spoiler : :
Gordon Chang talks a lot of game and 'appears' to be someone of high caliber spewing out educated and sound theories. This is why he has a lot of followers including people from academia.

The problem with Gordon is not because he is wrong, the problem with Gordon is he is only spewing out just one sided stories. Anyone can make any country into a doom and gloom scenario if you are only showing that side.

If all I talk about is the stats on say 2 city blocks of the most dangerous streets in city A, you would think the entire city A is the most dangerous place on Earth.
That doesn't make me a liar but it does make me intellectually dishonest.

You can speak the truth and even present real facts but still be dishonest. This is what many politicians do too. It's an art form. Some folks got it down to a science!

No too different than Satan in the garden of eden. Technically he spoke the truth. He never lied to Adam or Eve. He just told them a one sided story.


I know from your Posts, that you are a person with strong opinion, and your conviction about what you perceive as right or just is firm. The posts i made about the past 20 years of doom saying about the economic malais is NOT to invalidate every articles out there that express concerns about the chinese economy, it's has rather more to do with what is written in that post above in spoiler tag. It is something that skews the reporting quite a bit and thus incapable to present a good prediction.

So if your problem is that you think someone is towing the party line or is in need of some enlightment, then you could have just said so. No need to play smug and "wanting a translation", I would have gave you what you are now reading.

btw. i'm still waiting for you to answer why you have been increasing the frontal facing arc from 30° to 60° as the discussion went on to suit your narative. ;)

EDIT:

Frencho wrote:China's economy is not collapsing, but it has SERIOUS issues and they need to stop pretending they can keep growing at double digits. China’s rise was meteoric, impressive but it can’t last forever.


Forgot about this one. No one is expecting China to infinitely growing at double digits, not the think tank in China nor my German professor in early 2000. The question was always "how long will the rapid growth stop and the next phase of economic transformation start?"

Does China have issues? Of course, why would you think anybody would deny it? But the doom prophecies like what Gordon Chang is making are similar to when i say: "heed my words, you will die!"

And you know my prediction is absolutely true. :)


Cute, turning it personal, redirecting the narrative away from stories on china's largest firms edging bankruptcy towards how western critical thinkers" free thinking ideologues" are spinning a one sided story about the Chinese economy and the state of it's finances.

You didn't address a single one of my points, spinned/toned down the rhetoric from “Ideological bias” to it’s “agenda driven”, it's about skew reporting and that Gordon Chang stuff I did not even bother getting into on my first post.

Cherry on the top is desperately deflecting by bringing the off-topic Chinese turret MBT design posts where I called you out for lobbying blatant overmodelling of Chinese MBTs, then you ended looking like a fool who can’t get basic angles. Literally everyone I’ve pointed to that thread agrees that the frontal arc of ZTZ-85s is less protected than on Western or Soviet turret designs, plus none of the knowledgeable eugenites intervened to prove me wrong if it was the case.

But enough about that, let's get back on topic!

keldon wrote:By what you have written yourself just above, China is aware of those failures.
If you think Chinese are in any way less critical compared to "free thinking ideologues" on this side, then you really need to frequent the Chinese news outlet more. [...] The posts i made about the past 20 years of doom saying about the economic malais is NOT to invalidate every articles out there that express concerns about the Chinese economy,


Being concerned and critical of risk doesn't mean something is being done about it.

So if everyone in China is aware Chinese companies with assets roughly equal 25% of the GDP of China are about to go bust how is everyone also thinking China is going to keep growing?!
Those companies have banks, loans and shareholders, yet shadow lending, corruption and real estate bubble is water under the bridge according to the Forbes article you promoted.

Or are you going to say the PBOC will just print 2 trillion USD to cover Anbang , Sunac, Wanda, LEshi, HNA, Alibaba, Tencent and their personal banks to keep the country stable? You can't thrown an "Evergrande like lifeline" to all of them

Moreover the vision of the Chinese Communist Party mentioned stability 17 times.

Seems like in PRC stability is not achieved by removing systemic problems from the system it's done by printing and throwing money at them instead of double checking if the numbers are accurate and what that might entail... Critical thinking is a virtue the politburo suspects I guess.
But sure, It’s just me and my firm biased opinions and not critical thinking...

keldon wrote:The posts i made about the past 20 years of doom saying about the economic malais is NOT to invalidate every articles out there that express concerns about the chinese economy, it's has rather more to do with what is written in that post above in spoiler tag. It is something that skews the reporting quite a bit and thus incapable to present a good prediction.


Kaplan and Friedman yet have to disappoint me on their geopolitical predictions, they can sometimes be off by some years but they always ring true eventually.
Also these two have only started in 2010ish mentioning China will face a huge crisis in a couple of decades, and with all that's been going on since 2015 they're pretty much on the right path.

keldon wrote:The question was always "how long will the rapid growth stop and the next phase of economic transformation start?"

if Chinese Leadership doesn’t care about double digit growth how come they traffic so much the numbers to reach 6% to 8% growth targets.
Sure looks like they want to go back to 10%.

Now how can they transform their mature economy by pursuing high growth rates? High economic growth mostly happens when you have a wrecked economy, kickstart it to fix and expand it by loaning up(aka Post World Wars reconstruction, 90s globalization export boom).

To clarify, It's not the Chinese growth per se that's the issue, its how artificial it is; throw money that you printed at it and loaned the companies and it might look like growing but people don't feel it and prices can't fall because if they fall the loans fail.

Well that next phase of economic transformation looks on hold during Xi Jinping's tenure to say the least.

More on China's economy, three years and a bit and the China railways debt grew from 370 bilion USD to 685 billion USD

keldon wrote:Anyway, carrier has priority in a bluewater navy.


No; an admiral, seamanship, hull designs with good sea/oeceanworthiness at rough sea states, logistics and a good satellite navigation system have priority in a blue water navy over prestige flagships.
You can have a blue water navy without an aircraft carrier (UK Royal Navy) yet a green water navy with an aircraft carrier (Russian Federation Navy/Indian Navy/Brazilian Navy/PRC Navy).

At least BeiDou Navigation Satellite System looks much better than GLONASS or Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS).

TL;DR your entire defense was basically Frencho you're reading stuff from "free thinking ideologues" (No thank you very much I do not read ideologue BS nor read Breitbart news) thus your viewpoint is one sided plus you're stubborn, smug and rude. Yet you don't bring any compelling arguments (sourced) from your side to try to convince me (which I'm always open to, I even publicly admitted MightyZuk was right and I was wrong on believing most of Tzahal MBT losses during the Yorn Kippur War being inflicted by ATGMs because he sourced it) and prefer to play dumb, avoid or deflect which is why I'm rude towards you.

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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Wed 2 Aug 2017 20:22

Frencho wrote:Cute, turning it personal, redirecting the narrative away from stories on china's largest firms edging bankruptcy towards how western critical thinkers" free thinking ideologues" are spinning a one sided story about the Chinese economy and the state of it's finances.

You didn't address a single one of my points, spinned/toned down the rhetoric from “Ideological bias” to it’s “agenda driven”, it's about skew reporting and that Gordon Chang stuff I did not even bother getting into on my first post.

Cherry on the top is desperately deflecting by bringing the off-topic Chinese turret MBT design posts where I called you out for lobbying blatant overmodelling of Chinese MBTs, then you ended looking like a fool who can’t get basic angles. Literally everyone I’ve pointed to that thread agrees that the frontal arc of ZTZ-85s is less protected than on Western or Soviet turret designs, plus none of the knowledgeable eugenites intervened to prove me wrong if it was the case.


Cute, that whole thing started when you apparantly got triggered by the phrase "ideology driven" and smuggly asking me to translate a lenghty text, whose content you already have a good grasp of. And i stand by my point that western media has an ideological bias and the operating business are agenda driven, nothing got toned down. Let me stress this again: This opinion doesn't invalidate everything out there with China critical content wheter it's about economy or not.

I also take articles as they come in, the forbes one is a recent one and it breaks the usual mold of doomsaying, so i posted it.

The list with outtake from 20 years of doom prophecy serves as a show of syptome what the western media likes to do, For a very short overview about some of the basic misconceptions when dealing with chinese economy, read this: https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ch-2017-07

And continue the MBT stuff. You still havn't answered why you have been increasing the angle, when even the blog says 30° on each side, to suit your narrative. IIRC there was silence of other people about frontal arc being 120°, aside from codextero who said the Abrams would still have thick layer at 30° angle. So i'm kinda wondering why you are so sure about everyone supporting your position. Besides, frontal armor value i suggested are always lower compared to BLU stuff in the same price range, also applies to side armor.

Frencho wrote:Being concerned and critical of risk doesn't mean something is being done about it.

So if everyone in China is aware Chinese companies with assets roughly equal 25% of the GDP of China are about to go bust how is everyone also thinking China is going to keep growing?!
Those companies have banks, loans and shareholders, yet shadow lending, corruption and real estate bubble is water under the bridge according to the Forbes article you promoted.

Or are you going to say the PBOC will just print 2 trillion USD to cover Anbang , Sunac, Wanda, LEshi, HNA, Alibaba, Tencent and their personal banks to keep the country stable? You can't thrown an "Evergrande like lifeline" to all of them

Moreover the vision of the Chinese Communist Party mentioned stability 17 times.

Seems like in PRC stability is not achieved by removing systemic problems from the system it's done by printing and throwing money at them instead of double checking if the numbers are accurate and what that might entail... Critical thinking is a virtue the politburo suspects I guess.
But sure, It’s just me and my firm biased opinions and not critical thinking...


It's a private buisness failing. What do you expect to read? Detailed plans how to restructure the company? I mean, it may yet come or if it fails completly, then it will be carved up by other companies. will it have impact on jobs? I'm sure it will. Will the government intervene to save the "too big to fail"? Possibly, as usual when a business reaches a certain critical mass, they can't be ignored. In what magnitude could this possible intervention be? Hard to say and nobody knows for sure. Since you mentioned printing money, which is basically borrowing from the central bank, and brought up Japan: I do hope you are aware of the economic situation of Japan, otherwise the stephen roach article also mentions it shortly.

Frencho wrote:Kaplan and Friedman yet have to disappoint me on their geopolitical predictions, they can sometimes be off by some years but they always ring true eventually.
Also these two have only started in 2010ish mentioning China will face a huge crisis in a couple of decades, and with all that's been going on since 2015 they're pretty much on the right path.


Fair enough. Like i said, i don't invalidate everything. However there do exist an agenda and ideological driven reporting, to which Gordon Chang is a well know figure head and has been at it for close to 30 years now (If you are going to dabble in this whole topic you can't go around him). They are basically mudding up the scene by focus on every possible negative events in the chinese economy, while ignoring everything else, for them any positive reporting is an anomaly, hence why it's onesided and the reason i mock them.

I'm also sure economic downturn is inevitable, as in that's what economy normally does, but as usual time is an important factor. When it will happen is the question, since economy isn't engineering, a lot of people will give you there own estimates.

Frencho wrote:if Chinese Leadership doesn’t care about double digit growth how come they traffic so much the numbers to reach 6% to 8% growth targets.
Sure looks like they want to go back to 10%.

Now how can they transform their mature economy by pursuing high growth rates? High economic growth mostly happens when you have a wrecked economy, kickstart it to fix and expand it by loaning up(aka Post World Wars reconstruction, 90s globalization export boom).

To clarify, It's not the Chinese growth per se that's the issue, its how artificial it is; throw money that you printed at it and loaned the companies and it might look like growing but people don't feel it and prices can't fall because if they fall the loans fail.

Well that next phase of economic transformation looks on hold during Xi Jinping's tenure to say the least.

More on China's economy, three years and a bit and the China railways debt grew from 370 bilion USD to 685 billion USD


Like every every government they care about economic growth. The consens was for a long time that double digit growth will stop eventually. But growth is still growth, if China can pushing a bit more along the high percentage drive then it will, especially when the urbanization of central and west can still provide opportunities.

On regard of the national railway: This is a "too big to fail" and China regard it as a strategic asset. The debt it shoulders will be regarded as operation cost and the nature is similar to Japanese debt structure.

btw. i saved this article a long time ago, however it is archived and behind a paywall now, but maybe you have access? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ord-levels

I also don't agree with the "growth is artificial" statement. Wages have been rising quite rapidly in China, and consumer oriented business are thrieving. Like i said above time is a factor, the transformation is not a binary thing with a clear divide, it is rather a lengthy process. Additionally, i don't really understand why you are saying the people don't feel the economic growth, ever noticed those pesky chinese tourists? Who shops like a wholesale merchant at your local store?

Frencho wrote:No; an admiral, seamanship, hull designs with good sea/oeceanworthiness at rough sea states, logistics and a good satellite navigation system have priority in a blue water navy over prestige flagships.
You can have a blue water navy without an aircraft carrier (UK Royal Navy) yet a green water navy with an aircraft carrier (Russian Federation Navy/Indian Navy/Brazilian Navy/PRC Navy).

At least BeiDou Navigation Satellite System looks much better than GLONASS or Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS).


Context was 505 asking for a ballistic missile battlecruiser, i gave the short anwser with carrier as the main concern for the bluewater ambition, which if i expanded will encompass what you have said.

TL;DR your entire rant is basically based on you getting triggered by the term "ideological bias/driven" and like i said, you are a person with firm conviction, this is by no means intended as offense! The problem is you taking offense for the perceived attack on your conviction and then proceed to praise yourself as critical thinker and ignoring the very real instances of media overreaction/hysteria/bias, whose interpretation is strongly influenced by ideology.

Also, i don't think this whole thing is a discussion, but is more like you ranting to me, otherwise i can't really explain why you would asking me to translate something you already have the anwser for. And this is by all means rude! As for sources, defences etc. i gave you the article by stephen roach, it should serve as an entry point, anything further will be better done, if you have a interest yourself and acting it.

A final thing, please do read the stuff carefully, because i recall few instances where you haven't done it, which resulted in 1 time Razzmann calling you out in the Faustmann thread.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Sun 13 Aug 2017 15:06

The army games is over. China got 3rd place in the tank biathlon and half of the gold in other games.

http://www.fyjs.cn/thread-1878208-1-1.html

kinda a shame that the Indian T-90S got disqualified due to the engine failure on both tanks.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-bo ... ll-1736699

Here is also a SEAD configured J-10B, the huge YJ-91 needs to be carried in a weired angle. ECM and targeting pod with training LGB. Pic is in post 152

http://www.fyjs.cn/forum.php?mod=viewth ... %3D&page=8

A few days ago watched this german documentary about "medienmanipulation" aka fake news in oldschool. Unfortunately no english subtitles, but i find the content is well made.

http://www.ardmediathek.de/tv/Reportage ... d=44858000

Alot of experiments and interviews conducted. The focus is obviously what the Germans care about the most: Refugee crisis and the situation in the country. To summarize into a very short sentence: People believe what fits in their perceiption of the world, which promotes the spread of fake news. Two interesting passages start at around 6:41 and 17:00. There are many more examples and so on, like i said generally good content.

However what i find highly ironic is when the film tries to remind people of the journalistic diligence at passage 30:30. Stuff like checking the sources for any hidden agenda like monetary gains by ad or propaganda. But when it comes to China there is very seldom such diligence. Generally i don't blame the average joe, because it requires above average knowledge about China, which is impossible for general populace. There is a very good read on this specific topic by emeritus professor Jean-Pierre Lehmann: http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opi ... hina-views

As for the point about "believing what fits into their world view"; i have long since said everyone is a product of it's enviroment and the mainstream media has a huge influence on forming of opinions. Which when it comes to China a heavy bias comes into play. I remember this clip from 2008 when the German media was going full retard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nNpkfJXlBw

The program is aimed at children and youth, even if realistically speaking the target group will be busy with games and jerking off, the content still has a heavy bias and will be immediately noticable to people with indepth knowledge.

After experience of all these years, it doesn't surprise me one bit that under such circumstances there could be people who scream "inconceivable lies" at my professor in his lecture about China. :roll:
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby another505 » Mon 14 Aug 2017 15:42

keldon wrote:The army games is over. China got 3rd place in the tank biathlon and half of the gold in other games.

http://www.fyjs.cn/thread-1878208-1-1.html

kinda a shame that the Indian T-90S got disqualified due to the engine failure on both tanks.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/after-bo ... ll-1736699

Here is also a SEAD configured J-10B, the huge YJ-91 needs to be carried in a weired angle. ECM and targeting pod with training LGB. Pic is in post 152

http://www.fyjs.cn/forum.php?mod=viewth ... %3D&page=8

A few days ago watched this german documentary about "medienmanipulation" aka fake news in oldschool. Unfortunately no english subtitles, but i find the content is well made.

http://www.ardmediathek.de/tv/Reportage ... d=44858000

Alot of experiments and interviews conducted. The focus is obviously what the Germans care about the most: Refugee crisis and the situation in the country. To summarize into a very short sentence: People believe what fits in their perceiption of the world, which promotes the spread of fake news. Two interesting passages start at around 6:41 and 17:00. There are many more examples and so on, like i said generally good content.

However what i find highly ironic is when the film tries to remind people of the journalistic diligence at passage 30:30. Stuff like checking the sources for any hidden agenda like monetary gains by ad or propaganda. But when it comes to China there is very seldom such diligence. Generally i don't blame the average joe, because it requires above average knowledge about China, which is impossible for general populace. There is a very good read on this specific topic by emeritus professor Jean-Pierre Lehmann: http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opi ... hina-views

As for the point about "believing what fits into their world view"; i have long since said everyone is a product of it's enviroment and the mainstream media has a huge influence on forming of opinions. Which when it comes to China a heavy bias comes into play. I remember this clip from 2008 when the German media was going full retard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nNpkfJXlBw

The program is aimed at children and youth, even if realistically speaking the target group will be busy with games and jerking off, the content still has a heavy bias and will be immediately noticable to people with indepth knowledge.

After experience of all these years, it doesn't surprise me one bit that under such circumstances there could be people who scream "inconceivable lies" at my professor in his lecture about China. :roll:


I think indians are just bad engineers and mechanics...
Their flankers keep breaking down and now T90s, meanwhile around the world, their T90s and flankers are doing fine.
not to mention their Tejas is still taking forever to be built...

Interesting J10b SEAD, do we have any J-10C? btw, first time hearing ZTZ-96B. Seems like China learned their lesson from last biathlon and upgrade its mobility greatly.
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Re: 中国同志们

Postby keldon » Mon 14 Aug 2017 16:41

another505 wrote:
I think indians are just bad engineers and mechanics...
Their flankers keep breaking down and now T90s, meanwhile around the world, their T90s and flankers are doing fine.
not to mention their Tejas is still taking forever to be built...

Interesting J10b SEAD, do we have any J-10C? btw, first time hearing ZTZ-96B. Seems like China learned their lesson from last biathlon and upgrade its mobility greatly.


AFAIK J-10B is a interim model, all new production will be the C standard, few weeks ago there was also a pic showing J-10C with new PL-10 and PL-15 missiles.

The 96B was already in last years biathlon, currently they are being slowly intoduced to first tier units. Rumor says the Type-15 are supposed to replace them altogether as the light tank, however i find it doubtful.
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