Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

jmpveg22
Lieutenant
Posts: 1326
Joined: Fri 24 Aug 2012 12:37

Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby jmpveg22 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 12:52

Title says it all... How do you think the Breakup of the Soviet Union could have been delayed or avoided altogether?

Rules for thought Experiment:

1) It is January 1st 1988... this is the start date of the thought experiment. Meaning that all your actions and ideas must occur AFTER this date. And you must take into account the realities of the time and situation.

2) Try and maintain a degree of reality and realism.

3) Must be historically based.

4) Please try to be original. I know it's easy to do the whole "hardliner coup" or "WW3" paths... but how often is that played out already.

5) Please be respectful. It's a thought experiment NOT a flame war. :)

jmpveg22
Lieutenant
Posts: 1326
Joined: Fri 24 Aug 2012 12:37

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby jmpveg22 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 12:53

I think it's unfair that many ppl solely place the blame on Glasnost and Perestroika. If anything i think that these two ideas would have saved the USSR had it not been for 2 issues... 1) the largely unchecked and uncountered nationalist movements within in the USSR and 2) The unorganized movement away from the Brezhnev doctrine.

Had the USSR said to its allies (CSSR, Poland, GDR, etc etc etc): "We are reforming and will help you reform with us"... rather than just "deal with your own problems and we wont get involved".... i think the Soviet Sphere would have taken a far different path.

I also think that to deal with the nationalist movements some republics likely had to be let go (Most notably the Baltic states)... I think in 1988 had Gorbachev decided to make the Baltic states a newly independent Nation (much like the CSSR), much of the nationalist fervor would have been subsided or deflated. Basically preempt the "declarations of Sovereignty" by creating a "sovereign" new nation within the soviet sphere.

I think a similar prescriptions or crackdowns in Armenia, Moldova, and Georgia would have also been needed to deal with the rising nationalism movements there. But i think these movements were emboldened/amplified by the inspiration of the vocal and defiant Baltic states, so their severity would have been largely mitigated if the Baltic state solution was successful.

Finally i think if Gorbachev delayed the democratization talk a year or so... and focused solely on making the other primary elements of Glasnost and Perestroika successful that would have helped out immensely. Demokratizatsiya would have had to wait until the economy was at least somewhat improved or in the process of being improved.

All that said i think that if the USSR did survive, it would be much like China is today to a degree. Where you have a mixed economy that embraces a degree of capitalism. I'm thinking like an "NEP version 2.0".

That said i still think the USSR would eventually be supplanted or replaced by the year 2010-2020.

Hollywood Myth
Second-Lieutenant
Posts: 810
Joined: Tue 2 Dec 2014 06:36

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Hollywood Myth » Sun 4 Jan 2015 13:57

Honestly, the USSR was probably already doomed in 1988, as its destruction was the result of things that happened long before Gorbachev came to power. The problem with Gorbachev was that he simply showed up too late.
Image

terror51247
Major
Posts: 1851
Joined: Thu 27 Sep 2012 12:55
Contact:

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby terror51247 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:04

The soviet union was a multinational country.Such countries can only be held together be repression and authoritarism.Had glanost never happened, the ussr would still exist today.
How can anyone play to a faction's strength if the major flavour of that faction is overpriced units in every category?

Nequit
Chief Warrant Officer
Posts: 538
Joined: Thu 21 Mar 2013 00:42
Contact:

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Nequit » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:06

>Alarmed by the prospect of the Union disintegrating, Gorbachev put perestroika on hold, and proposed a more decentralized Soviet Union that would be more like a confederation, with the republics having a degree of autonomy and sovereignty

>This was proven by a March 1991 referendum on preserving the Union, which was favored by over 70 percent of the vote in each of the nine republics that considered it: Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. (Armenia, Georgia, Moldavia, and the Baltics abstained.)

> Ukraine still disputed the terms of the treaty, though 70 percent of its voters supported joining the Union in some form.

>While Gorbachev saw the treaty as the best hope for preserving the Union, Communist hardliners perceived that it would lead to the weakening and destruction of the USSR. To prevent the signing of the treaty, eight high-ranking Soviet officials, including the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Interior, the head of the KGB, and the head of the Peasant’ Union (supporting collectivization of farms), orchestrated a coup against Gorbachev.

>It was not so with Boris Yeltsin, who declared the coup unconstitutional and led a public protest in the streets of Moscow. Soviet troops refused to take any action against the protestors, so the coup leaders relented on August 21, just two days later. When Gorbachev returned to Moscow, he found himself forced by Yeltsin to agree to the dissolution of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), which was collectively held responsible for the coup. He resigned as head of the party, while retaining his office as President of the Soviet Union. Yeltsin banned the CPSU throughout the Russian republic by decree on November 6.

>Once the coup was defeated, Yeltsin and the other republic leaders no longer contemplated joining the confederation proposed in the spring, which had been supported by large majorities of voters. Instead, he met with the leaders of the Ukraine and Byelorussia (now renamed Belarus) and agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union completely. This was done without consulting the voters or even the Supreme Soviets of their respective republics.

>The dissolution of the Soviet Union, which was formalized on December 25, was not driven by any practical necessity, nor by the goal of democratization. On the contrary, this last phase of the empire’s decline, by far the most surprising precisely because it was so unnecessary, was conducted by entirely undemocratic means.


It's simple. We just need to go back in time and kill the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Interior, the head of the KGB, the head of the Peasant’ Union and Yeltsin.

User avatar
Mitchverr
More than 10 000 messages. Soldier you are the leader of all armies!
Posts: 10646
Joined: Sat 24 Mar 2012 18:08
Contact:

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Mitchverr » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:08

1. To late, Chernobyl disaster already occured, economy is shot.
2. To late, other things.

To "save the USSR" basically the USSR would have to give up being the USSR and transform into something else by this point anyway due to the significant issues over the last 40 years.

terror51247 wrote:The soviet union was a multinational country.Such countries can only be held together be repression and authoritarism.Had glanost never happened, the ussr would still exist today.


UK is multinational country, no repression here. :lol:
Image

Hollywood Myth
Second-Lieutenant
Posts: 810
Joined: Tue 2 Dec 2014 06:36

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Hollywood Myth » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:17

The most likely way Perestroika can save the USSR is if it begins earlier, say in 1982, after Brezhnev's death.

The only theoretical way I could see that the USSR would be preserved after 1988 is if Gorbachev asserted his power over the CPSU and used that power to bring the Union Republics back into line, and then reformed the economy. Kind of a China approach, where you introduce market reforms and the like without loosening the Communist Party's grip on the country. But this is simply not something Gorbachev would do, as he never anticipated that Perestroika would lead to the USSR's disintegration.
Image

terror51247
Major
Posts: 1851
Joined: Thu 27 Sep 2012 12:55
Contact:

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby terror51247 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:21

UK is multinational country, no repression here. :lol:

I guess thats why the scots had some treacherous thoughts some months ago.
How can anyone play to a faction's strength if the major flavour of that faction is overpriced units in every category?

jmpveg22
Lieutenant
Posts: 1326
Joined: Fri 24 Aug 2012 12:37

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby jmpveg22 » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:22

Mitchverr wrote:1. To late, Chernobyl disaster already occured, economy is shot.
2. To late, other things.

To "save the USSR" basically the USSR would have to give up being the USSR and transform into something else by this point anyway due to the significant issues over the last 40 years.

terror51247 wrote:The soviet union was a multinational country.Such countries can only be held together be repression and authoritarism.Had glanost never happened, the ussr would still exist today.


UK is multinational country, no repression here. :lol:


Technically the USA was/is too... after all parts of the country are formally of Spain, France, Mexico, Russia, Texas, (was once its own country), the UK, and a multitude of others.

Hollywood Myth
Second-Lieutenant
Posts: 810
Joined: Tue 2 Dec 2014 06:36

Re: Thought Experiment: How the USSR could have survived

Postby Hollywood Myth » Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:27

The British Empire was multinational. And it ended up just like the USSR.

Edit: Actually, now that I think about it, there are quite a few similarities between the British Empire and the USSR, the biggest difference being that the Empire collapsed due to WWII, not economics.
Last edited by Hollywood Myth on Sun 4 Jan 2015 14:31, edited 1 time in total.
Image

Return to “Off-Topic”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests